Market News for the Prepared Mind 7.5.2011

Market News for the Prepared Mind is now hosted by DiscoverOptions, an industry leader in mentoring  future and present option traders. This week's entry can be found at DiscoverOptions Blog.  I will continue posting commentary and thoughts on exchange listed options on my blog - The Prepared Mind.

Market News for the Prepared Mind 6.27.2011

The rumors of my demise have been exaggerated.  I am sorry for the lack of updates the past three weeks,  Blogger.com changed the protocol for accessing my blog.  The Prepared Mind is once again up and running.

Market News for the Prepared Mind is now hosted by DiscoverOptions, an industry leader in mentoring  future and present option traders. This week's entry can be found at DiscoverOptions Blog.  I will continue posting commentary and thoughts on exchange listed options on my blog - The Prepared Mind.

Market News 6.6.2011

Market News for the Prepared Mind is now hosted by DiscoverOptions , an industry leader in mentoring  future and present option traders. This week's entry can be found at DiscoverOptions Blog.  I will continue posting commentary and thoughts on exchange listed options on my blog - The Prepared Mind.

Where will the Apple land?

            Many events can affect the price of a stock.  The most prominent of these are earnings announcements combined with the ensuing conference calls for analysts. Earnings are not the only event which can affect the price of a stock.  For Apple, one of the most important events is the annual Worldwide Developers Conference held June 6 - June 10 in San Francisco.  Apple generally approaches the conference behind a veil of secrecy. Numerous website and blogs sole purpose is to divine the information to be presented by Apple.  This year the focus was on whether or not Steve Job's would attend the conference and what, if any, new products would be announced.

            Apple took the unusual step this past Tuesday of pre-announcing what it would discuss at next week's Worldwide Developers Conference, but it made an even more out-of-character move by revealing a new product before Steve Jobs had a chance to unveil it.  The company said it would launch iCloud, which it described as "Apple's upcoming cloud services offering." Jobs will shed more light on iCloud during the keynote that will kick off Apple's annual WWDC conference on Monday at 10 a.m. PT(1 p.m. ET)in San Francisco, but digital media experts are already abuzz about what iCloud might offer. Jobs will also be unveiling their new software called Lion, which will be the eight release of a MAC OS X, iO 5 operating system for Apple’s iPad, iPhone and iPod touch.

            This will be the second time, while on medical leave, that Steve Jobs has made an appearance to introduce a new Apple product. Expect the financial community to focus on how Job's physical appearance and the implication upon his future involvement with Apple.  This will affect the price as much or more than any product announcement. Apple traders:  Do not let Mondays keynote catch you by surprise.

Market News for the Prepared Mind:5.31.11

Frank Fahey's Market News is now hosted by discoveroptions, an OptionVue enterprise.  Please go to the discoveroptions blog  Frank will continue to post here on other subjects concerning exchange listed options and the next shiny thing attracting his attention.

Market News for the Prepared Mind: 05.23.2011

"Chance favors the prepared mind." -- Louis Pasteur

The market closed down for the third straight week with the indexes trading in a narrow range.  The S&P 500 (SPX) closed at 1,333.27 or down 0.34%,  the Dow Jones Industrials closed at 12.512.04 or down 0.66%, the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) closed at 2,351.43 or down 0.1.17%, and the Russell 2000 closed at 829.06  or down 0.79%.  Implied volatility for the indexes – SPX (VIX). RUT (RVX) and NDX (VXN) – was up.

The beginning of this week appears to be a case of the market saying, “Oops, I forgot about that.”  The apprehension exhibited by the markets appears to have a name.  The bogeyman are European sovereign debt, strength of the dollar, U.S. budget  concerns, with a dash of Spanish elections and  “easing demand.’    The talking heads have ignored Greek debt the past three weeks.  Ignoring problems comes with a cost.  Today’s projected opening prices are currently are 1.25 – 1.5 % below Friday’s close. The Prepared Mind has anticipated the impact of this move and other moves in the market post-opening.  The preparation for the new reality includes adjustments, closing trades, and new trades.

This week’s economic focus is on the New Home Sales on Tuesday, GDP on Thursday, and Personal Income on Friday.  The earnings cycle is winding down with only a handful of reports scheduled for the week.  Watch the Volatility Indexes – SPX (VIX). RUT (RVX) and NDX (VXN).  Another  strong indicator of direction will be the /Euro dollar/US dollar spot price.  Be wary.  Trade carefully and with a plan.

Remember:

“Chance favors the Prepared Mind.” – Louis Pasteur

This week’s economic news:

Monday May 23:

Economic:  Chicago Fed National Activity – 8:30

Earnings: BMO: Campbell Soup (CPB). Genesco (GCO)

Tuesday May 24:

Economic:  ICSC- Goldman Sachs Store Sales – 8:45, Redbook – 8:55, April New Home Sales – 10:00

Earnings:  BMO;  Medtronic (MDT);  AMC – Applied Materials (AMAT)

Wednesday May 25:

Economic:  Durable Goods Orders – 8:30, FHFA House Price Index  – 10:00, EIA Petroleum Status Report – 10:30.

Earnings:  BMO: Costco (COST), Polo Ralph Lauren (RL); AMC:  Computer Sciences (CSC), Semtech (SMTC).

Thursday May 26:

Economic:  GDP – 8:30, Jobless Claims – 8:30

Earnings: BMO:  Big Lots (BIG), Heinz (HNZ)

Friday  May 27:

Economic:  Personal Income and Outlays – 8:30, Consumer Sentiment – 9:55, Pending Home Sales – 10:00.

Earnings: BMO:  Mentor Graphics(MENT)

Market News for the Prepared Mind: 05.16.2011

The market again traded in a range.  The tenor of the market over the past two weeks has changed from optimistic to apprehensive.  Inflation fears and commodity markets worked in tandem to throw a damper on the markets.  These concerns  were balanced by positive earnings results last week.  The market mavens remain bullish, but their most recent market pronouncements have been tempered with phrases like "easing demand", "trimming risk exposure", "lower degree of confidence", "slowing global industrial demand", and "uncertainty."  These buzzwords were used as qualifiers by the "experts" who are constitutionally incapable of uttering the words - "I don't know."  Well I don't know which direction the market is going.  One of my colleagues recently asked me if I were bullish or bearish on the market.  I am neither. One doesn't need to knwo which direction the market is going in order to make money.  

The S&P 500 (SPX) closed at 1,337.2 or down 0.18%,  the Dow Jones Industrials closed at 12.595.75 down 0.34%, the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) closed at 2,379.24 or down 0.17%, the Russell 2000 closed at 835.67 up 0.28%, and the Dow Jones 30 Industrials closed at 12.595.75 down 0.34%,.  Implied volatility for the indexes - SPX (VIX). RUT (RVX) and NDX (VXN) - were down.

This week's economic focus is on the housing reports on Tuesday and Wednesday.  The FOMC minutes should give us guidance concerning post - QE2 policy.  Earnings season winds down this week.  Lowes and Home Depot will provide guidance about the current and future status of the housing sector.  Dell and Hewlett-Packard earnings and guidance will provide direction for the future of the home and mobile computing markets.  Most equity options cease trading Friday after the close.  A number of index options - RUT, SPX, NDX, MNX, DJX, VIX cease trading at the close on Thursday.  The cash settlement will be determined  by the opening prices of each individual componrnt of the index.

  Remember:

  "Chance favors the Prepared Mind." - Louis Pasteur

This week's economic news:

Monday May 16:

Economic:  Empire State Manufacturing Survey - 8:30.

Earnings: BMO:  J. C. Penney (JCP), Lowe's (LOW), Valspar (VAL); AMC:  Urban Outfitters (URBN).

Tuesday May 17:

Economic:  April Housing Starts - 8:30, ICSC- Goldman Sachs Store Sales - 8:45, Redbook - 8:55, April Industrial Production - 9:15, April Capacity Utilization - 9:15

Earnings:  BMO:  Home Depot (HD), Vodafone (VOD), Wal-Mart (WMT). AMC:  Analog Devices (ADI), Dell (DELL).


Wednesday May 18:
Economic:  EIA Petroleum Status Report (Weekly Inventory) - 10:30, FOMC Minutes - 2:00.

Earnings:  BMO: Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), BJ's Wholesale (BJ), Deere & Co. (DE), Staples (SPLS), Target (TGT). AMC:  Hewlett-0Packard (HPQ), Limited (LMT). Petsmart (PETM), Pan American Silver (PAAS), Synopsis (SNPS).

Other:  Senate votes on ending oil subsidies.

Thursday May 19:
Economic:  Weekly Jobless Claims - 8:30, April Existing Home Sales - 10:00, April Leading Indicators - 10:00, Philadelphia Fed Survey - 10:00.


Earnings: BMO:  Dollar Tree Stores (DLTR), GameStop (GME), Sears Holding (SHLD), Tidewater (TDW), Toro (TTC).  AMC:  Salesforce.com(CRM), Foot Locker (FL), Gap (GPS).


Other:  AM settled options stop trading at close - DJX, MNX, NDX, RUT, SPX, VIX, VXN.


Friday  May 20:
Economic:

Earnings: BMO:  Ann Taylor (ANN), Donaldson (DCI).

Other :  Options expiration.