Monday, October 30, 2017

Market News for the Prepared Mind: 10.30 – 11.06.2017

  By Frank Fahey
"Chance favors the Prepared Mind." - Louis Pasteur

“If I panic, everyone else panics.” – Kobe Bryant

“Any bull market covers a multitude of sins, so there may be all sorts of problems with the current system
that we won't see until the bear market comes.” – Ron Chernow

“The key to risk management is never putting yourself in a position
where you cannot live to fight another day.” Dick Fuld

“In November you begin to know how long the winter will be.” - Martha Gellhorn

“Panic is a natural human response to danger, but it's one that severely compounds the risk” – David Ignatius

Tech stocks led the NASDAQ and S&P 500 to new highs. Euphoria has not accompanied these new highs. Global central bank support has resulted in an environment where every market pullback is a buying opportunity. I continue to be skeptical, wary and to this date, wrong. The markets seem to have a continuing ability to shake off and and all bad news. The major concerns are higher inflation and the appointment of a new Fed chief. Either could force central banks and the fed to take a more hawkish stance.

Here is an overview of the US market behavior last week and for 2017 YTD:
Index 27-Oct Change % Weekly 2017 YTD Volatility of Index
Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) 23434.19 105.56 0.45% 18.58% 11.89% (VXD)
S&P 500 (SPX) 2581.07 5.86 0.23% 15.31% 9.80% (VIX)
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) 6213.47 104.65 1.71% 27.75% 14.30% (VXN)
Russell 2000 (RUT) 1508.32 (0.96) -0.06% 11.14% 13.49%(RVX)
S&P 100 (OEX) 1140.09 4.83 0.43% 14.99% 8.27%(VXO)
Dow Jones Transportation (TRAN) 4784.36 (82.44) -1.69% 18.09% NA
Crude Oil (CLz7) 54.19 2.12 4.07% 0.56% 25.18%(OVX)
Gold (GCZ7) 1274.60 (7.20) -0.56% 10.64% 11.48%(GVZ)
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) 9.80 (0.17) -1.71% NA
Data Source: OptionVue8

The biggest news on the VIX front is the return of Russell Rhoads blogging at http://www.cboe.com/blogs about the VIX and associated volatility issues. The cash VIX was lower for the week, while the November through January monthly futures were higher. The behavior of the monthly futures and the CBOE longer term indexes (VXST, VXV, and VXMT) are showing near support for current volatility levels.

Here is an overview of last week for the VIX and related products:
Indexes Ticker 27-Oct 20-Oct Change % Change
CBOE Volatility Index VIX 9.80 9.97 -0.17 -1.71%
VIX November Future (11/15/2017) VXX7 11.425 11.325 0.100 0.88%
VIX December Future (12/20/2017) VXZ7 12.225 12.125 0.100 0.82%
VIX January Future (1/17/2018) VXZ7 13.325 13.275 0.050 0.38%
CBOE Short-term Volatility Index VXST 8.61 8.41 0.200 2.38%
CBOE 3 Month Volatility Index VXV 11.96 11.96 0.000 0.00%
CBOE Mid-term Volatility Index (6 month) VXMT 14.48 14.35 0.130 0.91%
VIX of VIX VVIX 92.78 90.53 2.250 2.49%
CBOE SKEW Index SKEW 135.70 148.81 (13.11) -8.81%
Long VIX ETP's
ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ETF UVXY 15.62 15.26 0.36 2.36%
iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN VXX 34.26 33.79 0.47 1.39%
ProShares VIX Short Term Futures ETF VIXY 28.43 28.05 0.38 1.35%
iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN VXZ 19.25 19.23 0.02 0.10%
Inverse VIX ETP's
ProShares Short VIX Short Term Future ETF SVXY 106.33 108.19 (1.86) -1.72%
Daily Inverse VIX Short Term ETN XIV 110.66 112.68 (2.02) -1.79%
Data Source: OptionVue8

The last few days of October and first few days of November include several important economic reports. The Fed will hold a regularly scheduled meeting on Tuesday and announce its policy decisions on Wednesday. It is “Employment Week.” A host of October employment reports will be released at the end of the week. These reports used to move the markets. In addition, we will get reports on the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index and U.S. Motor Vehicle sales. 

Earnings announcements will be coming fast and furious this week. FANG components Facebook and Apple will announce quarterly results on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. Earnings announcements include: Mondelez Int’l, MasterCard, Cummins, ADM, Pfizer, Mosaic, Ecolab, MetLife, Facebook, Estee Lauder, Qualcomm, Prudential, Marathon Oil, Williams, Yum! Brands, CBS, ADP, HCP, Apple, Apache, Starbucks and Duke Energy. Confirm the date and time of any company’s earnings announcement before trading any earnings announcement strategy. The most accurate source of this information is the company’s investor relations website.

Advice to stimulate your imagination:

“Ideas come and go, stories stay.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“What we learn from history is that people don’t learn from history.” - Warren Buffett

“A point of view can be a dangerous luxury when substituted for insight and understanding.” - Marshall McLuhan

“It takes a man a long time to learn all the lessons of all his mistakes.” - Jesse Livermore

“Freedom is what you do with what's been done to you.” – Jean-Paul Sartre


Monday, October 30:

Economic: Personal Income and Outlays – 8:30, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey – 10:30, Farm Prices - 3:00.

International: Germany Retail Sales - 2:00AM, Germany Unemployment – 4:55AM, Eurozone Economic Sentiment – 6:00AM, Japan Industrial Production – 7:50PM.

Other: Bank of Japan Announcement.Earnings:
SYMBOL B/A 10/27 CLOSE SHORT INT% AVGVOL AVG MOVE SMA 10 50% FIB
ALSN AMC $40.97 1.79% 1,847,810 4.54% $39.08 $37.87
D AMC $80.41 3.28% 2,124,520 1.63% $79.63 $78.34
EIX AMC $78.73 1.31% 1,774,440 0.69% $78.78 $78.38
MAC AMC $57.05 2.96% 1,466,310 2.54% $57.20 $55.59
MDLZ AMC $40.91 1.27% 8,443,140 2.08% $41.10 $41.02
OHI AMC $31.32 7.12% 1,835,500 2.88% $31.82 $31.87
SBAC AMC $146.55 5.29% 1,499,030 1.99% $148.10 $146.59
SRE AMC $115.11 1.65% 1,080,200 1.10% $114.34 $113.52
SUM AMC $31.94 21.24% 1,211,320 3.24% $31.66 $31.62
UDR AMC $38.25 2.43% 1,236,460 1.67% $38.51 $38.36
VNO AMC $72.98 1.70% 1,077,800 2.37% $75.75 $76.36

Tuesday, October 31:
Economic: Employment Cost Index – 8:30, Redbook – 8:55, S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI – 9:00, Chicago PMI – 9:45, Consumer Confidence – 10:00, State Street Investor Confidence – 10:00.

International: Japan PMI Manufacturing Index – 8:30PM, China PMI Manufacturing Index – 9:00PM.

Other: FOMC Meeting Begins.
Earnings:
SYMBOL B/A 10/27 CLOSE SHORT INT% AVGVOL AVG MOVE SMA 10 50% FIB
ADM BMO $43.01 2.20% 2,842,280 5.45% $43.52 $43.37
AET BMO $178.60 4.77% 1,814,420 1.58% $159.66 $167.34
AMT BMO $138.45 1.24% 1,842,170 0.60% $0.00 $0.00
BP BMO $38.65 0.27% 4,509,400 2.63% $38.84 $38.39
CMI BMO $178.64 6.64% 1,198,170 4.90% $176.01 $173.05
ETN BMO $79.50 1.40% 2,559,190 3.30% $78.73 $77.78
FIS BMO $95.94 1.29% 1,220,310 1.97% $95.22 $94.25
HCA BMO $76.89 2.47% 2,405,130 1.14% $78.13 $76.47
INCY BMO $115.56 2.84% 1,561,860 2.59% $114.78 $113.06
K BMO $60.55 1.70% 2,733,810 3.05% $61.43 $62.49
LL BMO $35.55 37.81% 1,392,790 14.91% $34.94 $36.58
MA BMO $146.59 0.70% 3,124,460 2.13% $146.02 $143.10
OLN BMO $35.35 7.48% 1,884,530 5.40% $35.09 $35.14
PEG BMO $49.36 2.53% 2,589,390 1.97% $48.90 $47.45
PFE BMO $35.74 5.23% 17,085,000 1.67% $36.16 $35.98
SERV BMO $45.09 1.51% 1,228,080 6.05% $46.28 $46.38
SHOP BMO $104.11 5.12% 3,647,270 7.76% $100.31 $105.41
APC AMC $47.69 3.42% 4,985,230 1.44% $48.31 $48.45
CHRW AMC $79.59 15.37% 1,675,790 4.20% $77.97 $76.67
CXO AMC $130.12 6.67% 1,185,510 4.06% $132.25 $130.74
EA AMC $115.83 1.78% 2,499,160 1.09% $114.94 $115.40
EVHC AMC $43.27 5.96% 2,275,640 0.82% $42.84 $42.81
EXAS AMC $49.33 13.98% 1,571,150 13.57% $48.14 $47.28
OKE AMC $53.43 8.17% 3,016,200 1.86% $55.45 $54.95
VOYA AMC $40.21 1.85% 1,402,900 2.10% $40.00 $39.77

Wednesday, November 1:
Economic: MBA Mortgage Applications – 7:00, ADP Employment Report = 8:15, Treasury Refunding Announcement – 8:30, PMI Manufacturing Index – 9:45, ISM Manufacturing Index – 10:00, Construction Spending – 10:00, , EIA Petroleum Status Report – 10:30

International Economic: No major announcements.

Other: FOMC Meeting Announcement – 2:00.

Earnings:
SYMBOL B/A 10/27 CLOSE SHORT INT% AVGVOL AVG MOVE SMA 10 50% FIB
AGN BMO $176.33 1.48% 2,946,060 2.54% $189.38 $195.83
BG BMO $69.96 1.74% 1,014,400 9.98% $70.88 $70.59
COMM BMO $31.73 3.47% 1,700,820 8.08% $32.05 $32.38
CTSH BMO $74.58 1.23% 2,881,650 4.50% $74.34 $73.28
DVN BMO $34.91 3.81% 4,104,940 2.73% $35.13 $35.71
EAT BMO $31.12 11.42% 1,341,320 3.83% $31.68 $31.81
EL BMO $111.79 3.35% 2,168,340 4.90% $110.35 $109.25
HFC BMO $36.10 5.45% 2,854,370 3.79%3 $36.28 $35.30
ICPT BMO $59.32 28.85% 1,543,740 9.41% $64.72 $77.42
LITE BMO $61.65 19.18% 1,725,960 6.83% $58.37 $57.30
MD BMO $43.49 8.53% 1,282,090 6.74% $43.33 $43.33
NVO BMO $48.86 0.22% 1,991,450 8.52% $49.70 $49.15
PPL BMO $37.69 1.56% 2,926,890 0.68% $37.70 $38.08
SBGI BMO $31.40 17.93% 1,796,420 3.53% $30.55 $30.45
SO BMO $52.06 2.51% 4,572,820 1.59% $51.75 $50.44
SPR BMO $79.67 7.08% 1,081,600 7.86% $79.87 $79.07
TAP BMO $80.37 2.87% 1,441,160 2.19% $82.83 $82.63
TEL BMO $88.59 1.43% 1,122,650 2.23% $88.18 $85.17
TEX BMO $46.76 1.68% 1,250,040 2.77% $46.18 $44.81
ZBH BMO $121.00 3.44% 1,299,240 4.15% $120.94 $118.24
CAKE AMC $44.18 25.63% 1,365,400 6.04% $43.28 $42.44
CF AMC $37.45 7.57% 4,143,010 6.51% $36.99 $35.97
CLVS AMC $74.35 17.98% 1,593,120 4.87% $78.54 $79.12
CTRP AMC $46.60 7.99% 4,773,320 2.96% $50.81 $51.52
DXCM AMC $44.46 14.71% 2,029,600 8.07% $44.92 $56.53
EFX AMC $108.95 3.61% 3,786,560 3.35% $109.25 $104.86
ES AMC $62.24 2.38% 1,469,580 0.90% $61.96 $61.22
EXR AMC $78.70 2.61% 1,009,340 2.13% $81.38 $79.78
FB AMC $170.63 0.99% 15,285,100 2.35% $173.42 $169.15
FLS AMC $44.74 6.34% 1,398,270 3.88% $44.67 $43.55
GXP AMC $32.40 1.88% 1,788,370 0.71% $32.07 $31.20
JUNO AMC $43.53 18.87% 2,633,820 6.88% $43.52 $44.19
KHC AMC $77.30 2.50% 3,294,540 1.58% $77.21 $78.29
LBTYA AMC $30.99 1.16% 2,060,820 1.16% $31.76 $32.72
LBTYK AMC $30.00 1.43% 2,999,920 1.12% $30.77 $31.66
MET AMC $54.21 1.65% 5,238,120 2.55% $53.28 $52.14
OXY AMC $64.62 1.27% 3,542,010 2.84% $64.99 $64.24
PRU AMC $111.89 1.36% 1,798,980 3.22% $110.26 $108.41
PXD AMC $142.31 5.65% 2,129,160 4.59% $143.74 $147.19
QCOM AMC $53.80 1.49% 7,906,630 2.57% $52.94 $52.65
QRVO AMC $71.56 7.54% 1,077,590 1.68% $71.34 $70.55
SGMS AMC $44.00 27.20% 1,068,680 5.68% $43.71 $44.58
SYMC AMC $31.86 3.61% 6,188,580 3.56% $32.22 $32.56
TDOC AMC $31.75 28.16% 1,055,830 6.63% $33.13 $32.67
TSLA AMC $326.17 24.15% 5,785,630 5.70% $344.49 $350.01
WBMD AMC $66.48 15.85% 1,312,380 1.25% $66.46 $66.36
XPO AMC $69.14 18.94% 1,518,780 3.88% $67.01 $66.28
YELP AMC $45.00 15.66% 2,015,850 15.99% $44.02 $44.04


Thursday, November 2:
Economic: Chain Store Sales, Challenger Job-Cut Report – 7:30, Weekly Jobless Claims – 8:30, Productivity and Costs – 8:30, , Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index – 9:45, EIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30, Money Supply – 4:30.

International: Germany PMI Manufacturing Index – 455, Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Index – 5:00AM.

Earnings:
SYMBOL B/A 10/27 CLOSE SHORT INT% AVGVOL AVG MOVE SMA 10 50% FIB
ABC BMO $78.77 3.40% 1,711,590 6.75% $80.97 $81.64
ADP BMO $117.30 2.23% 4,309,180 5.96% $115.38 $112.07
ALL BMO $93.96 0.88% 2,029,120 3.17% $92.70 $92.14
ALR BMO $50.99 7.11% 1,523,300 3.13% $50.35 $49.39
AN BMO $47.77 10.80% 1,519,450 3.99% $45.41 $46.41
APA BMO $39.59 7.26% 3,683,130 5.06% $41.30 $42.92
BABA BMO $170.32 8.92% 18,040,300 2.68% $175.56 $175.62
BDX BMO $209.84 1.96% 1,134,670 0.80% $207.65 $203.12
BLL BMO $42.73 7.43% 2,088,440 3.61% $42.39 $41.84
CAB BMO $61.50 14.11% 1,276,250 2.80% $61.39 $56.73
CHD BMO $45.76 5.71% 1,421,300 4.15% $46.78 $47.30
CI BMO $198.75 1.04% 1,268,920 1.21% $190.91 $191.13
CNQ BMO $32.83 2.50% 1,812,820 3.92% $32.91 $33.30
DLPH BMO $99.07 2.23% 1,607,670 2.92% $97.74 $99.96
ENB BMO $37.96 1.47% 1,844,330 0.98% $39.83 $39.95
EXC BMO $39.88 2.65% 4,813,300 0.86% $39.71 $38.59
ICE BMO $65.61 1.18% 2,346,080 2.56% $66.96 $68.08
LNC BMO $76.99 1.78% 1,255,760 1.14% $75.64 $74.57
NWL BMO $40.40 18.39% 4,726,930 4.60% $41.12 $41.95
PCG BMO $56.74 1.05% 4,108,360 0.56% $56.77 $59.75
PWR BMO $37.83 5.46% 1,414,400 1.96% $37.52 $37.58
RL BMO $91.26 7.78% 1,268,510 8.16% $88.25 $88.05
SNY BMO $47.54 0.19% 1,080,140 1.73% $49.16 $48.94
TDC BMO $32.57 12.90% 1,453,800 8.35% $32.53 $33.03
TRGP BMO $40.69 13.66% 1,480,830 1.91% $43.72 $44.16
VMC BMO $123.01 2.42% 1,266,250 3.43% $119.94 $119.27
W BMO $63.83 38.03% 1,616,780 6.37% $67.31 $73.75
WRK BMO $60.47 2.20% 1,403,460 1.75% $60.06 $58.09
YUM BMO $75.87 2.18% 1,835,370 1.81% $75.80 $74.77
ZTS BMO $63.74 1.06% 2,120,240 5.09% $65.24 $64.56
AAPL AMC $157.41 0.78% 27,509,400 3.48% $157.64 $155.01
AIG AMC $64.85 1.25% 5,083,100 2.89% $64.42 $62.78
AKRX AMC $32.84 20.01% 2,371,840 2.55% $33.19 $32.77
ALNY AMC $114.49 10.50% 1,304,250 8.16% $117.60 $117.14
ATVI AMC $62.06 1.80% 5,799,050 3.45% $61.84 $62.66
CBS AMC $57.04 3.75% 3,163,470 1.96% $57.34 $58.48
CC AMC $56.61 4.75% 1,937,830 2.23% $56.44 $53.81
CRUS AMC $54.26 7.56% 1,023,520 6.86% $53.94 $52.94
ED AMC $85.50 5.16% 1,436,380 0.72% $84.47 $83.07
FLR AMC $42.69 5.41% 1,691,150 6.72% $42.70 $42.08
HLF AMC $71.23 36.18% 1,554,530 5.35% $74.89 $73.25
LNT AMC $43.38 1.91% 1,141,380 0.87% $43.46 $42.51
LYV AMC $42.26 4.47% 1,819,320 4.35% $42.47 $42.58
MNST AMC $56.75 1.69% 1,824,830 3.42% $56.38 $55.62
MOH AMC $65.53 18.08% 1,175,180 5.64% $63.85 $63.88
SBUX AMC $54.91 1.89% 10,265,100 3.01% $54.79 $54.90

Friday, November 3:
Economic: October Employment Situation Report – 8:30, International Trade = 8:30, PMI Services Index – 9:45, Factory Orders – 10:00, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index – 10:00, Baker Hughes Rig Count

International: No major announcements.

Other: Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in moderated Q&A with Women in Housing and Finance, in Washington, with audience Q&A – 12:30PM.

Earnings:
SYMBOL B/A 10/27 CLOSE SHORT INT% AVGVOL AVG MOVE SMA 10 50% FIB
AEE BMO $61.38 2.39% 1,326,400 0.81% $61.21 $59.76
CBG BMO $39.59 2.55% 1,626,470 4.28% $39.67 $38.69
CNK BMO $36.78 3.63% 1,367,710 1.05% $35.95 $37.10
DUK BMO $87.36 3.00% 2,227,390 0.94% $87.49 $85.97
EOG BMO $96.92 2.91% 2,760,990 0.61% $96.71 $95.80
RLGY BMO $32.37 2.12% 1,307,490 3.25% $32.65 $33.24
XRAY BMO $61.37 3.62% 2,054,850 3.26% $60.42 $58.57

Monday, November 6:
Economic: TD Ameritrade IMX - 12:30.

International: Germany Manufacturers’ Orders – 2:00AM.
Other: New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley will speak about Lessons from the Financial Crisis at a luncheon event at the Economic Club of New York, with moderated Q&A, in New York – 12:30PM.

Earnings:
SYMBOL B/A 10/27 CLOSE SHORT INT% AVGVOL AVG MOVE SMA 10 50% FIB
CAH BMO $64.75 2.04% 2,233,600 2.05% $65.71 $66.59
CTLT BMO $42.58 5.54% 1,138,840 6.55% $42.40 $40.98
CVS BMO $73.31 1.36% 5,744,370 2.15% $74.36 $76.39
KORS BMO $49.76 6.69% 2,237,780 9.65% $49.20 $47.81
MYL BMO $38.57 5.23% 7,222,180 1.27% $38.40 $35.19
SYY BMO $54.86 4.27% 2,443,960 1.74% $54.76 $54.22
CAR AMC $41.29 51.48% 2,831,590 10.96% $41.20 $39.38
FANG AMC $100.88 5.30% 1,205,020 1.22% $101.47 $99.43
FMC AMC $93.14 8.70% 1,108,850 7.19% $94.06 $90.28
GDDY AMC $45.75 30.17% 1,442,080 3.93% $44.71 $44.31
KNX AMC $41.38 14.86% 2,260,040 3.43% $39.78 $39.94
LVLT AMC $52.85 1.52% 2,675,280 3.56% $53.49 $54.12
MCHP AMC $93.12 12.11% 1,808,790 3.13% $92.46 $90.92
PDCE AMC $46.25 10.91% 1,014,680 4.09% $47.40 $47.71
QGEN AMC $33.71 1.55% 1,201,430 2.45% $34.12 $33.78
RSPP AMC $32.00 12.01% 2,048,160 3.38% $33.13 $33.12
SWKS AMC $105.52 4.94% 1,500,290 2.40% $105.69 $103.26
TRIP AMC $37.75 20.21% 3,024,210 6.73% $39.47 $40.95
WTW AMC $44.63 71.96% 1,443,700 17.20% $45.96 $44.97
ZAYO AMC $35.75 3.31% 2,083,820 2.21% $35.63 $35.13

Sunday, September 17, 2017

Market News for the Prepared Mind: 9.18 – 9.25.2017


"Chance favors the Prepared Mind." - Louis Pasteur

“If I panic, everyone else panics.” – Kobe Bryant

“Any bull market covers a multitude of sins, so there may be all sorts of problems with the current system that we won't see until the bear market comes.” – Ron Chernow

“Remember, I am neither a bear nor a bull, I am an agnostic opportunist. I want to make money short- and long-term. I want to find good situations and exploit them.” - Jim Cramer

“Panic is a natural human response to danger, but it's one that severely compounds the risk” – David Ignatius

Investors were caught of guard last week. September is historically a very poor performing month. There have been litanies of problems: Hurricane Irma, North Korea, Hurricane Andrew, Bitcoin, and North Korea. What happened?

The Dow hit record highs four days in a row. The S&P 500 closed the week at another new record high – up 1.58% for the week. The other major indexes turned in equally stellar performances. The small-cap dominated Russell 2000 led the way with gains of 2.31%. The rally left the cognoscenti struggling for explanations.

Here is an overview of the US market behavior last week and for 2017 YTD:
Index 15-Sep Change % Weekly 2017 YTD Volatility of Index
Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) 22268.34 470.55 2.16% 12.68% 9.84% (VXD)
S&P 500 (SPX) 2500.23 38.80 1.58% 11.70% 10.17% (VIX)
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) 5988.00 74.33 1.26% 23.12% 12.51% (VXN)
Russell 2000 (RUT) 1431.72 32.30 2.31% 5.50% 11.83%(RVX)
S&P 100 (OEX) 1105.11 18.13 1.67% 11.47% 7.80%(VXO)
Dow Jones Transportation (TRAN) 4603.58 42.71 0.94% 13.63% NA
Crude Oil (CLV7) 50.37 2.81 5.91% -6.53% 26.65%(OVX)
Gold (GCZ7) 1323.50 (27.70) -2.05% 14.89% 12.06 (GVZ)
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) 10.17 (1.95) -16.09% NA

Data Source: OptionVue8

The biggest news on the VIX front is the return of Russell Rhoads blogging at http://www.cboe.com/blogs about the VIX and associated volatility issues. Of special interest are his series of reports from the CBOE Risk Management Conference.

The monthly September VIX Futures contract goes off the board on the open Wednesday.

Here is an overview of last week for the VIX and related products:
Indexes Ticker 15-Sep 8-Sep Change % Change
CBOE Volatility Index VIX 10.170 12.125 -1.955 -16.12%
VIX September Future (9/20/2017) VXU7 11.125 13.275 (2.15) -16.20%
VIX October Future (10/18/2017) VXV7 12.925 14.325 (1.40) -9.77%
VIX November Future (11/15/2017) VXX7 14.175 14.875 (0.70) -4.71%
CBOE Short-term Volatility Index VXST 8.30 11.29 (2.99) -26.48%
CBOE 3 Month Volatility Index VXV 12.96 14.69 (1.73) -11.78%
CBOE Mid-term Volatility Index (6 month) VXMT 15.09 16.37 (1.28) -7.82%
VIX of VIX VVIX 90.63 100.12 (9.49) -9.48%
CBOE SKEW Index SKEW 144.54 135.39 9.15 6.76%
Long VIX ETP's
ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ETF UVXY 24.69 31.83 (7.14) -22.43%
iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN VXX 42.80 48.52 (5.72) -11.79%
ProShares VIX Short Term Futures ETF VIXY 35.57 40.26 (4.69) -11.65%
iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN VXZ 21.38 22.47 (1.09) -4.85%
Inverse VIX ETP's
ProShares Short VIX Short Term Future ETF SVXY 86.04 76.33 9.71 12.72%
Daily Inverse VIX Short Term ETN XIV 89.61 79.70 9.91 12.43%
Data Source: OptionVue8


This will be one of the most important weeks of the year when it comes to economic data. We are in the midst of a Central Bank bull market. The Federal Reserve holds its regularly scheduled meeting, and is expected to detail a timetable for reducing its balance sheet. We, also, get data on existing home sales and housing starts. The wild cards remain North Korea and the District of Columbia.

The god’s are conspiring against me. I will include my usual scans of earnings announcements next week. There are very few earnings announcements this week. The highlights include: Adobe Systems, Autozone, Fedex, Bed Bath and Beyond, Analogic, General Mills, Herman Miller, and CarMax. Confirm the date and time of any company’s earnings announcement before trading any earnings announcement strategy. The most accurate source of this information is the company’s investor relations website.


Advice to stimulate your imagination:

“Ideas come and go, stories stay.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb

“Bull There is no training, classroom or otherwise, that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it's the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market.” – Paul Tudor Jones

“A point of view can be a dangerous luxury when substituted for insight and understanding.” - Marshall McLuhan

“Don’t give me timing, give me time.” – Jesse Livermore

“Freedom is what you do with what's been done to you.” – Jean-Paul Sartre


Monday, September 18:

Economic: Housing Market Index – 10:00.

International: Eurozone HICP – 5:00 AM.

Other:  Listen to Frank Fahey on "Stocks and Jocks" Listen Live

Tuesday, September 19:

Economic: Housing Start – 8:30, Current Account - 8:30, Import and Export Prices – 8:30, Redbook – 8:55.

International: Japan Merchandise Trade – 7:50 PM.

Other: FOMC meeting begins.

Wednesday, September 20:

Economic: MBA Mortgage Applications – 7:00, Existing Homes Sales – 10:00, , EIA Petroleum Status Report – 10:30/

International Economic: Germany –PPI – 2:00 AM, Great Britain Retail Sales – 4:30 AM.

Other: FOMC Forecasts – 2:00 PM, Fed Chair Press Conference – 2:30 PM. September VIX Futures contract (VXU7) goes off the board on the open Wednesday.

Thursday, September 21:

Economic: Weekly Jobless Claims – 8:30, Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey - 8:30, FHFA House Price Index – 9:00, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index – 9:45, Leading Indicators – 10:00, EIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30, Money Supply – 4:30.

International: No major announcements.

Friday, September 22:


Economic: Retail Sales – 8:30, Empire State Manufacturing Survey – 8:30, Industrial Production – 9:15, Business Inventories – 10:--, Consumer Sentiment – 10:00, Baker Hughes Rig Count – 1:00.

International: France GDP = 2:45 AM, France PMI Composite Flash – 3:00 AM, Germany PMI Composite Flash – 3:30 AM, Eurozone PMI Composite Flash - 4:00 AM.

Other: San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to speak at the Swiss National Bank Research Conference 2017 - Monetary Policy Design, Conduct and Effects in Zurich, Switzerland, with media Q&A – 6:00 AM, Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Esther George to deliver the keynote at the "Global Oil Supply & Demand: Prospects for Greater Balance" Conference in Oklahoma City, with audience Q&A – 9:30 AM.

Monday, September 25:


Economic: Chicago Fed National Activity Index – 8:30, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey – 10:30.

International: No major announcements.

Other: New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley will speak about workforce development at Onondaga Community College in Syracuse, New York, with audience Q&A – 8:30 AM, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans to speak about current economic conditions or monetary policy at the Economic of Grand Rapids Luncheon Meeting, with audience and media Q&A, in Grand Rapids, Michigan – 12:40PM, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in Eye of the Hawk Town Hall Event in Grand Forks, North Dakota, with audience Q&A. – 6:30PM.