Sunday, September 17, 2017

Market News for the Prepared Mind: 9.18 – 9.25.2017


"Chance favors the Prepared Mind." - Louis Pasteur

“If I panic, everyone else panics.” – Kobe Bryant

“Any bull market covers a multitude of sins, so there may be all sorts of problems with the current system that we won't see until the bear market comes.” – Ron Chernow

“Remember, I am neither a bear nor a bull, I am an agnostic opportunist. I want to make money short- and long-term. I want to find good situations and exploit them.” - Jim Cramer

“Panic is a natural human response to danger, but it's one that severely compounds the risk” – David Ignatius

Investors were caught of guard last week. September is historically a very poor performing month. There have been litanies of problems: Hurricane Irma, North Korea, Hurricane Andrew, Bitcoin, and North Korea. What happened?

The Dow hit record highs four days in a row. The S&P 500 closed the week at another new record high – up 1.58% for the week. The other major indexes turned in equally stellar performances. The small-cap dominated Russell 2000 led the way with gains of 2.31%. The rally left the cognoscenti struggling for explanations.

Here is an overview of the US market behavior last week and for 2017 YTD:
Index 15-Sep Change % Weekly 2017 YTD Volatility of Index
Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) 22268.34 470.55 2.16% 12.68% 9.84% (VXD)
S&P 500 (SPX) 2500.23 38.80 1.58% 11.70% 10.17% (VIX)
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) 5988.00 74.33 1.26% 23.12% 12.51% (VXN)
Russell 2000 (RUT) 1431.72 32.30 2.31% 5.50% 11.83%(RVX)
S&P 100 (OEX) 1105.11 18.13 1.67% 11.47% 7.80%(VXO)
Dow Jones Transportation (TRAN) 4603.58 42.71 0.94% 13.63% NA
Crude Oil (CLV7) 50.37 2.81 5.91% -6.53% 26.65%(OVX)
Gold (GCZ7) 1323.50 (27.70) -2.05% 14.89% 12.06 (GVZ)
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) 10.17 (1.95) -16.09% NA

Data Source: OptionVue8

The biggest news on the VIX front is the return of Russell Rhoads blogging at http://www.cboe.com/blogs about the VIX and associated volatility issues. Of special interest are his series of reports from the CBOE Risk Management Conference.

The monthly September VIX Futures contract goes off the board on the open Wednesday.

Here is an overview of last week for the VIX and related products:
Indexes Ticker 15-Sep 8-Sep Change % Change
CBOE Volatility Index VIX 10.170 12.125 -1.955 -16.12%
VIX September Future (9/20/2017) VXU7 11.125 13.275 (2.15) -16.20%
VIX October Future (10/18/2017) VXV7 12.925 14.325 (1.40) -9.77%
VIX November Future (11/15/2017) VXX7 14.175 14.875 (0.70) -4.71%
CBOE Short-term Volatility Index VXST 8.30 11.29 (2.99) -26.48%
CBOE 3 Month Volatility Index VXV 12.96 14.69 (1.73) -11.78%
CBOE Mid-term Volatility Index (6 month) VXMT 15.09 16.37 (1.28) -7.82%
VIX of VIX VVIX 90.63 100.12 (9.49) -9.48%
CBOE SKEW Index SKEW 144.54 135.39 9.15 6.76%
Long VIX ETP's
ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ETF UVXY 24.69 31.83 (7.14) -22.43%
iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN VXX 42.80 48.52 (5.72) -11.79%
ProShares VIX Short Term Futures ETF VIXY 35.57 40.26 (4.69) -11.65%
iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN VXZ 21.38 22.47 (1.09) -4.85%
Inverse VIX ETP's
ProShares Short VIX Short Term Future ETF SVXY 86.04 76.33 9.71 12.72%
Daily Inverse VIX Short Term ETN XIV 89.61 79.70 9.91 12.43%
Data Source: OptionVue8


This will be one of the most important weeks of the year when it comes to economic data. We are in the midst of a Central Bank bull market. The Federal Reserve holds its regularly scheduled meeting, and is expected to detail a timetable for reducing its balance sheet. We, also, get data on existing home sales and housing starts. The wild cards remain North Korea and the District of Columbia.

The god’s are conspiring against me. I will include my usual scans of earnings announcements next week. There are very few earnings announcements this week. The highlights include: Adobe Systems, Autozone, Fedex, Bed Bath and Beyond, Analogic, General Mills, Herman Miller, and CarMax. Confirm the date and time of any company’s earnings announcement before trading any earnings announcement strategy. The most accurate source of this information is the company’s investor relations website.


Advice to stimulate your imagination:

“Ideas come and go, stories stay.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb

“Bull There is no training, classroom or otherwise, that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it's the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market.” – Paul Tudor Jones

“A point of view can be a dangerous luxury when substituted for insight and understanding.” - Marshall McLuhan

“Don’t give me timing, give me time.” – Jesse Livermore

“Freedom is what you do with what's been done to you.” – Jean-Paul Sartre


Monday, September 18:

Economic: Housing Market Index – 10:00.

International: Eurozone HICP – 5:00 AM.

Other:  Listen to Frank Fahey on "Stocks and Jocks" Listen Live

Tuesday, September 19:

Economic: Housing Start – 8:30, Current Account - 8:30, Import and Export Prices – 8:30, Redbook – 8:55.

International: Japan Merchandise Trade – 7:50 PM.

Other: FOMC meeting begins.

Wednesday, September 20:

Economic: MBA Mortgage Applications – 7:00, Existing Homes Sales – 10:00, , EIA Petroleum Status Report – 10:30/

International Economic: Germany –PPI – 2:00 AM, Great Britain Retail Sales – 4:30 AM.

Other: FOMC Forecasts – 2:00 PM, Fed Chair Press Conference – 2:30 PM. September VIX Futures contract (VXU7) goes off the board on the open Wednesday.

Thursday, September 21:

Economic: Weekly Jobless Claims – 8:30, Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey - 8:30, FHFA House Price Index – 9:00, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index – 9:45, Leading Indicators – 10:00, EIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30, Money Supply – 4:30.

International: No major announcements.

Friday, September 22:


Economic: Retail Sales – 8:30, Empire State Manufacturing Survey – 8:30, Industrial Production – 9:15, Business Inventories – 10:--, Consumer Sentiment – 10:00, Baker Hughes Rig Count – 1:00.

International: France GDP = 2:45 AM, France PMI Composite Flash – 3:00 AM, Germany PMI Composite Flash – 3:30 AM, Eurozone PMI Composite Flash - 4:00 AM.

Other: San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to speak at the Swiss National Bank Research Conference 2017 - Monetary Policy Design, Conduct and Effects in Zurich, Switzerland, with media Q&A – 6:00 AM, Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Esther George to deliver the keynote at the "Global Oil Supply & Demand: Prospects for Greater Balance" Conference in Oklahoma City, with audience Q&A – 9:30 AM.

Monday, September 25:


Economic: Chicago Fed National Activity Index – 8:30, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey – 10:30.

International: No major announcements.

Other: New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley will speak about workforce development at Onondaga Community College in Syracuse, New York, with audience Q&A – 8:30 AM, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans to speak about current economic conditions or monetary policy at the Economic of Grand Rapids Luncheon Meeting, with audience and media Q&A, in Grand Rapids, Michigan – 12:40PM, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in Eye of the Hawk Town Hall Event in Grand Forks, North Dakota, with audience Q&A. – 6:30PM.

Sunday, September 10, 2017

Market News for the Prepared Mind: 9.11 – 9.18.2017


“Chance favors the Prepared Mind." - Louis Pasteur

“Millions saw the apple fall, but Newton was the one who asked why.” – Bernard Baruch

“Panic causes tunnel vision.” – Simon Sinek

“A stock operator has to fight a lot of expensive enemies within himself – Jesse Livermore

“Panic is a natural human response to danger, but it's one that severely compounds the risk” – David Ignatius

The major indexes continue remain within easy striking distance of all-time highs. There is almost palpable disbelief among the financial cognoscenti that the indexes have not had a correction. Once again I have been reminded about the perils of ignoring a trend. The trend is bullish.

A characteristic of a bull market is the markets celebrate good news while ignoring bad news. Bad news sells. As a result, purveyors of news and opinion focus on the bad news as a means to market their product. The bad news last week was impressive. Natural disasters (Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Jose), gas shortages, weakness in the US dollar, and an H-Bomb test by North Korea dominated the news.. The Republican Party received the worst news when Nancy Pelosi and Donald Trump cut a deal. The deal removed a potential debt ceiling crisis from the equation. The bad news was not totally ignored. This litany of bad news had only a minor effect on the market.

Here is an overview of the US market behavior last week and for 2017 YTD:
Index 8-Sep Change % Weekly 2017 YTD Volatility of Index
Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) 21797.79 (189.77) -0.86% 10.30% 12.01% (VXD)
S&P 500 (SPX) 2461.43 (15.12) -0.61% 9.97% 12.12% (VIX)
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) 5913.67 15.77 0.27% 21.59% 16.07% (VXN)
Russell 2000 (RUT) 1399.42 (14.10) -1.00% 3.12% 15.49%(RVX)
S&P 100 (OEX) 1086.98 (8.27) -0.76% 9.64% 10.761%(VXO)
Dow Jones Transportation (TRAN) 4560.87 69.74 1.55% 12.57% NA
Crude Oil (CLV7) 47.56 0.21 0.44% -11.75% 29.49%(OVX)
Gold (GCZ7) 1351.20 21.30 1.60% 17.29% 13.77 (GVZ)
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) 12.12 1.99 19.64% NA
Data Source: OptionVue8


Negative news was ignored by the equity markets, but it was not ignored by the VIX and other volatility products. The CBOE Short-term Volatility Index (VXST) showed the greatest reaction to uncertainty by closing at 11.29. up 2.32 or 25.86%. The front month VIX future (VXU7) contango settled at 7.91% vs. Thursday’s contango of 9.75%. Narrowing of the contango percentage shows a greater relative concern for the front month versus the second month.

Here is an overview of last week for the VIX and related products:
Indexes Ticker 8-Sep 1-Sep Change % Change
CBOE Volatility Index VIX 12.12 11.28 0.84 7.45%
VIX September Future (9/20/2017) VXU7 13.275 13.075 0.20 1.53%
VIX October Future (10/18/2017) VXV7 14.325 14.025 0.30 2.14%
VIX November Future (11/15/2017) VXX7 14.875 14.425 0.45 3.12%
CBOE Short-term Volatility Index VXST 11.29 8.97 2.32 25.86%
CBOE 3 Month Volatility Index VXV 14.69 13.99 0.70 5.00%
CBOE Mid-term Volatility Index (6 month) VXMT 16.37 15.42 0.95 6.16%
VIX of VIX VVIX 100.12 93.53 6.59 7.05%
CBOE SKEW Index SKEW 135.39 130.16 5.23 4.02%
Long VIX ETP's
ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ETF UVXY 31.83 30.88 0.95 3.08%
iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN VXX 48.52 47.68 0.84 1.76%
ProShares VIX Short Term Futures ETF VIXY 40.26 39.63 0.63 1.59%
iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN VXZ 22.47 21.86 0.61 2.79%
Inverse VIX ETP's
ProShares Short VIX Short Term Future ETF SVXY 76.33 77.96 (1.63) -2.09%
Daily Inverse VIX Short Term ETN XIV 79.70 73.89 5.81 7.86%
Data Source: OptionVue8


The second week of September is light on economic reports. The only numbers of note will be on inflation and industrial production. The impact of the hurricanes may push Fed unwinding further out into the future.the future. The week winds up with consumer sentiment winds up Friday and will tally the psychological effects of both Harvey as well as Hurricane Irma. The wild cards remain North Korea and pull together a tax reform bill.

There are very few earnings announcements this week. The highlights include: United Natural Foods, Cracker Barrel, and Oracle. Confirm the date and time of any company’s earnings announcement before trading any earnings announcement strategy. The most accurate source of this information is the company’s investor relations website.


Advice to stimulate your imagination:

“Ideas come and go, stories stay.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb

“Bull markets are born in pessimism, grow on skepticism,
mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” – John Templeton

“A point of view can be a dangerous luxury when substituted for insight and understanding.” - Marshall McLuhan

“Don’t give me timing, give me time.” – Jesse Livermore

“Freedom is what you do with what's been done to you.” – Jean-Paul Sartre


Monday, September 11:

Listen to Frank Fahey on "Stocks and Jocks" Listen Live

Economic: No major announcements.

International: Japan Tertiary Index – 1:30AM.

Earnings: None meeting scan criteria.

Tuesday, September 12:

Economic: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index – 6:00, Redbook – 8:55, JOLTS – 10:00.

International: Great Britain CPI – 4:00 AM.

Earnings: None meeting scan criteria.


Wednesday, September 13:
Economic: MBA Mortgage Applications – 7:00, PPI – FD – 8:30, EIA Petroleum Status Report – 10:30

International Economic: Germany CPI – 3:15 AM, Great Britain Labour Market Report – 4:30 AM, Eurozone Industrial Production – 5:00 AM.

Earnings: None meeting scan criteria.

Thursday, September 14:

Economic: Weekly Jobless Claims – 8:30, Consumer Price Index - - 8:30, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index – 9:45, Quarterly Services Survey – 10:00, EIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30, Money Supply – 4:30.

International: Great Britain Retail Sales - 4:30 AM.

Other: Bank of England Announcement & Minutes – 7:00 AM.

Earnings: None meeting scan criteria.

Friday, September 15:

QUADRUPLE WITCHING

Economic: Retail Sales – 8:30, Empire State Manufacturing Survey – 8:30, Industrial Production – 9:15, Business Inventories – 10:00, Consumer Sentiment – 10:00, Baker Hughes Rig Count – 1:00.

International: Eurozone Merchandise Trade – 5:00 AM.

Earnings: None meeting scan criteria.


Monday, September 18:

Economic: Housing Market Index – 10:00.

International: Eurozone HICP – 5:00 AM.

Earnings: None meeting scan criteria.


Monday, September 4, 2017

Market News for the Prepared Mind: 9.04 – 9.11.2017

"Chance favors the Prepared Mind." - Louis Pasteur

“Dreams come true; without that possibility, nature would not incite us to have them.” – John Updike

“Hurricane season brings a humbling reminder that, despite our technologies,
most of nature remains unpredictable.” – Diane Ackerman

“The obvious rarely happens, the unexpected constantly occurs.” – Jesse Livermore

“There is a profound difference between information and meaning.” – Warren Bennis

The end of the month was on Thursday last week. Pundits across financial media were focused on telling investors about the impact of the first losing month in four months. Time and energy were spent on what a losing month for the indexes would portend for the rest of the year. It turns out we were able to witness a monumental waste of time, energy and breath. The only major index with negative monthly performance was the small cap laden Russell 2000.

Here are the August results:
Index 31-Aug 31-Jul Aug Change August % 2017 YTD
Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) 21948.10 21891.00 57.10 0.26% 11.06%
S&P 500 (SPX) 2471.65 2470.30 1.35 0.05% 10.43%
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) 5988.60 5880.30 108.30 1.84% 23.13%
Russell 2000 (RUT) 1405.28 1425.14 (19.86) -1.39% 3.55%
S&P 100 (OEX) 1093.78 1088.12 5.66 0.52% 10.32%
Dow Jones Transportation (TRAN) 4481.93 4490.36 (8.43) -0.19% 10.63%
Crude Oil (CLV7) 47.10 50.17 (3.07) -6.12% -12.60%
Gold (GCZ7) 1326.70 1275.30 51.40 4.03% 15.16%
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) 10.59 10.26 0.33 3.22% NA
Data Source: OptionVue8


The end-of-month and end-of-week market rallies were the result of a consensus that Hurricane Harvey as an impetus to force come to an agreement on the debt ceiling increase. This view put concerns about North Korea and a government shut down in the rear-view mirror. However, North Korea’s detonation of an H-Bomb may have removed some of the investor comfort zone.

Here is an overview of the US market behavior last week and for 2017 YTD:
Index 1-Sep Change % Weekly 2017 YTD Volatility of Index
Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) 21987.56 173.89 0.80% 11.26% 10.62% (VXD)
S&P 500 (SPX) 2476.55 34.30 1.40% 10.64% 10.13% (VIX)
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) 5897.90 75.37 1.29% 21.27% 15.52% (VXN)
Russell 2000 (RUT) 1413.52 36.07 2.62% 4.15% 15.68% (RVX)
S&P 100 (OEX) 1095.25 15.23 1.41% 10.47% 12.91% (VXO)
Dow Jones Transportation (TRAN) 4491.13 90.92 2.07% 10.85% NA
Crude Oil (CLV7) 47.35 (0.51) -1.07% -12.14% 28.97%(OVX)
Gold (GCZ7) 1329.90 33.40 2.58% 15.44% 12.73 (GVZ)
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) 10.13 (1.15) -10.20% NA
Data Source: OptionVue8

I am still in a summer state of mind.  There was nothing particularly noteworthy about the gehavior of the VIX and related products.  The S&P 500  went up while the VIX went down.


Here is an overview of last week for the VIX and related products:
Indexes Ticker 1-Sep 25-Aug Change % Change
CBOE Volatility Index VIX 10.13 11.28 (1.15) -10.20%
VIX September Future (9/20/2017) VXU7 12.625 13.075 (0.45) -3.44%
VIX October Future (10/18/2017) VXV7 13.775 14.025 (0.25) -1.78%
VIX November Future (11/15/2017) VXX7 14.250 14.425 (0.18) -1.21%
CBOE Short-term Volatility Index VXST 7.94 8.97 (1.03) -11.48%
CBOE 3 Month Volatility Index VXV 13.59 13.99 (0.40) -2.86%
CBOE Mid-term Volatility Index (6 month) VXMT 15.33 15.42 (0.09) -0.58%
VIX of VIX VVIX 93.60 93.53 0.07 0.07%
CBOE SKEW Index SKEW 130.53 130.16 0.37 0.28%
Long VIX ETP's
ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ETF UVXY 28.94 30.88 (1.94) -6.28%
iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN VXX 46.17 47.68 (1.51) -3.17%
ProShares VIX Short Term Futures ETF VIXY 38.35 39.63 (1.28) -3.23%
iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN VXZ 21.65 21.86 (0.21) -0.96%
Inverse VIX ETP's
ProShares Short VIX Short Term Future ETF SVXY 80.31 77.96 2.35 3.01%
Daily Inverse VIX Short Term ETN XIV 83.72 73.89 9.83 13.30%

Data Source: OptionVue8

U.S. markets are closed in observance of Labor Day. The shortened trading week is quiet on economic reports. Factory orders, mortgage applications, and wholesale trade highlight the balance of the week. In Europe, the European Central Bank is expected to leave their policy unchanged. Merchandise trade and industrial production dominate the economic reports to be released.

The wild card remains North Korea. North Korea carried out its most powerful nuclear test this weekend. Off-hours trading on Sunday and Monday showed a muted response. S&P 500 futures were down 6.25 or 0.35%. September VIX futures were up 6.13% or 0.775.

This week earnings announcements slow down to a trickle this week. The highlights include: Dave&Buster’s, Hewlett Packard, Casey’s General Stores, Fred’s, G-III Apparel, Korn Ferry, Barnes&Noble, Brady, John Wiley&Sons, VeriFone, and Kroger. Confirm the date and time of any company’s earnings announcement before trading any earnings announcement strategy. The most accurate source of this information is the company’s investor relations website.


Advice to stimulate your imagination:

“Ideas come and go, stories stay.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb

“A paranoid is someone who knows a little of what's going on. A psychotic is a guy who's just found out what's going on.” – William S. Burroughs

“A point of view can be a dangerous luxury when substituted for insight and understanding.” - Marshall McLuhan

“Don’t give me timing, give me time.” – Jesse Livermore

“Freedom is what you do with what's been done to you.” – Jean-Paul Sartre


Monday, September 4:


U.S. Holiday: Labor Day – Markets Closed.

International: Eurozone PPI – 5:00AM.

Tuesday, September 5:


Economic: Factory Orders – 10:00, Gallup US ECI – 2:00.

International: Germany PMI Composite – 3:55 AM, Eurozone PMI Composite – 4:00 AM, Eurozone GDP – 5:00 AM, Eurozone Retail Sales – 5:00 AM.

Other: Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to speak at a moderated Q&A at the 1st Tuesday Speaker Series at Carlson School of Management in Minneapolis, with audience Q&A – 2:00PM, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan to participate in a moderated Q&A session in Dallas, with audience and media Q&A – 7:00PM.

Earnings: None meeting scan criteria.


Wednesday, September 6:

Economic: MBA Mortgage Applications – 7:00, International Trade – 8:30, Redbook – 8:66, PMI Services Index – 9:45, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index – 10:00, Beige Book – 2:00.

International Economic: Germany Manufacturers’ Orders - 2:00 AM.

Other: Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell will deliver a speech entitled "The Role of Boards at Large Financial Firms," as the breakfast presentation during the Large-Bank Directors Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, with audience and media Q&A, in Chicago – 9:15AM.

Earnings:
SYMBOL B/A 9/1 CLOSE AVGVOL AVG MOVE SMA 10 50% FIB
FRAN BMO $7.66 1,169,780 12.20% $7.50 $8.23
FRED BMO $6.07 1,582,650 8.04% $6.07 $6.45
HDS BMO $33.02 4,249,940 9.08% $31.73 $31.66
JKS BMO $28.52 1,099,190 6.52% $25.34 $26.44
DDC AMC $14.15 1,392,480 1.78% $14.11 $14.07
RH AMC $48.51 2,385,240 15.46% $46.53 $58.71

Thursday September 7:


Economic: Weekly Jobless Claims – 8:30, Productivity and Costs - 8:30, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index – 9:45, Quarterly Services Survey – 10:00, EIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30, EIA Petroleum Status Report – 11:00 Money Supply – 4:30.

International: Germany Industrial Production – 2:00 AM, Japan GDP – 7:50 PM, China Merchandise Trade Balance – 10:00PM.

Other: European Central Bank Announcement – 7:45 – AM. President Federal Reserve Bank of New York William Dudley will speak about the U.S. economic outlook and implications for monetary policy at a Money Marketeers of New York University event, with audience and media Q&A, in New York – 7:00 PM, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to participate in a moderated discussion on his views on the economy at An Evening with Raphael Bostic in Atlanta – 7:00 PM, Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Esther George to discuss the U.S. economic outlook at the Omaha Economic Forum in Omaha – 8:15 PM.

Earnings:
SYMBOL B/A 9/1 CLOSE AVGVOL AVG MOVE SMA 10 50% FIB
BKS BMO $7.50 1,342,960 7.69% $7.55 $7.60
DVMT BMO $74.76 1,235,420 1.39% $71.63 $68.90
FCEL BMO $1.60 1,051,880 1.06% $1.49 $1.49
HOV BMO $1.88 1,450,190 7.11% $1.90 $2.06
MBLY BMO $62.67 2,519,760 2.79% $63.01 $62.99
AOBC AMC $16.52 1,107,980 7.16% $17.46 $18.73
FNSR AMC $23.19 2,779,340 11.48% $24.26 $25.50
PAY AMC $19.58 1,674,920 8.65% $19.37 $19.26
RDFN AMC $23.60 1,863,690 None $24.69 $26.39
SGYP AMC $3.01 4,299,530 3.34% $3.01 $3.48
TLRD AMC $12.15 1,564,820 22.72% $11.54 $11.62

Friday September 8:


Economic: Motor Vehicle Sales, Employment Situation – 8:30, PMI Manufacturing Index – 9:45, ISM Manufacturing Index – 110:00, Construction Spending – 10:00, Consumer Sentiment – 10:00 , Baker Hughes Rig Count – 1:00.

International: Germany Merchandise Trade – 2:00 A, France Industrial Production 2:45AM, Great Britain Merchandise Trade – 4:30 AM, China CPI & PPI – 9:30 PM.

Other: Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on Consumer Finance Issues at New Perspectives on Consumer Behavior in Credit and Payments Markets Conference in Philadelphia – 8:45 AM.

Earnings: None meeting scan criteria.


Monday September 11:


Economic: No major announcements.

International: Japan Tertiary Index – 1:30AM.

Earnings: None meeting scan criteria.

Thursday, August 31, 2017

August 2017 Market Performance


It was a week with the talking heads assaulting us with hours of talking about poor August market performance.  This is why I listen to music while trading.  I do not need to fill my head with the product of their need to fill time.  Filter the noise and think for yourself.
August 2017 Performance
Underlying 31-Aug 31-Jul August Change August % 2017 YTD
Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) 21948.10 21891.00 57.10 0.26% 11.06%
S&P 500 (SPX) 2471.65 2470.30 1.35 0.05% 10.43%
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) 5988.60 5880.30 108.30 1.84% 23.13%
Russell 2000 (RUT) 1405.28 1425.14 (19.86) -1.39% 3.55%
S&P 100 (OEX) 1093.78 1088.12 5.66 0.52% 10.32%
Dow Jones Transportation (TRAN) 4481.93 4490.36 (8.43) -0.19% 10.63%
Crude Oil (CLV7) 47.10 50.17 (3.07) -6.12% -12.60%
Gold (GCZ7) 1326.70 1275.30 51.40 4.03% 15.16%
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) 10.59 10.26 0.33 3.22% NA

Sunday, August 27, 2017

Market News for the Prepared Mind: 8.28 – 9.04.2017

"Chance favors the Prepared Mind." - Louis Pasteur

“Money is made by sitting, not trading.” – Jesse Livermore

“Hurricane season brings a humbling reminder that, despite our technologies,
most of nature remains unpredictable.” – Diane Ackerman

“Computers have enabled people to make more mistakes faster than almost any invention in history, with the possible exception of tequila and hand guns.”
 – Mitch Ratcliffe

“There is a profound difference between information and meaning.” – Warren Bennis

The truncated, end-of-summer, version of the Prepared Mind. The weekly numbers and economic calendar are here but without commentary.

Here is an overview of the US market behavior last week and for 2017 YTD:
Index 25-Aug Change % Weekly 2017 YTD Volatility of Index
Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) 21813.67 139.16 0.64% 10.38% 11.19% (VXD)
S&P 500 (SPX) 2442.25 16.70 0.69% 9.11% 11.28% (VIX)
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) 5822.53 31.62 0.55% 19.72% 15.52% (VXN)
Russell 2000 (RUT) 1377.45 19.66 1.45% 1.50% 15.68% (RVX)
S&P 100 (OEX) 1080.02 6.50 0.61% 8.94% 12.91% (VXO)
Dow Jones Transportation (TRAN) 4400.21 18.31 0.42% 8.61% NA
Crude Oil (CLV7) 47.86 (1.04) -2.13% -11.19% 10.28%(OVX)
Gold (GCZ7) 1296.50 6.20 0.48% 12.54% 12.63 (GVZ)
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) 11.28 (2.98) -20.90% NA
Data Source: OptionVue8


Here is an overview of last week for the VIX and related products:
Indexes Ticker 25-Aug 18-Aug Change % Change
CBOE Volatility Index VIX 11.28 14.26 (2.98) -20.90%
VIX September Future (9/20/2017) VXU7 13.075 14.975 (1.90) -12.69%
VIX October Future (10/18/2017) VXV7 14.025 15.125 (1.10) -7.27%
VIX November Future (11/15/2017) VXX7 14.425 15.375 (0.95) -6.18%
CBOE Short-term Volatility Index VXST 8.97 13.17 (4.20) -31.89%
CBOE 3 Month Volatility Index VXV 13.99 15.65 (1.66) -10.61%
CBOE Mid-term Volatility Index (6 month) VXMT 15.42 16.38 (0.96) -5.86%
VIX of VIX VVIX 93.53 114.39 (20.86) -18.24%
CBOE SKEW Index SKEW 130.16 128.86 1.30 1.01%
Long VIX ETP's
ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ETF UVXY 30.88 38.97 (8.09) -20.76%
iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN VXX 47.68 53.20 (5.52) -10.38%
ProShares VIX Short Term Futures ETF VIXY 39.63 44.19 (4.56) -10.32%
iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN VXZ 21.86 22.51 (0.65) -2.89%
Inverse VIX ETP's
ProShares Short VIX Short Term Future ETF SVXY 77.96 70.66 7.30 10.33%
Daily Inverse VIX Short Term ETN XIV 81.32 73.89 7.43 10.06%
Velocity Shares Daily VIX Midterm ETN ZIV 71.57 69.68 1.89 2.71%
Data Source: OptionVue8

As August comes to a close, reports will be released for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index, the second estimate of U.S. second-quarter GDP, motor vehicle sales, and the employment situation. Important inflation data includes PCE price indexes as part of Thursday's personal income and outlays report. Other important data includes advance trade in goods on Monday and also home sales on Thursday. Consumer confidence on Tuesday and consumer sentiment on Friday, bring consumer psychology onto focus . Hurricane Harvey, North Korea, and the debt ceiling are in play as wild cards for the upcoming week.

This earnings season winds down this the week. The highlights include: G-III Apparel, Scansource, H&R Blockm Movado, Hain Celestial, Best Buy, Shoe Carnival, Dytech, Bob Evans Farms, Chico’s. Brown-Forman, Analog Devices, Vera Bradley, Campbell Soup, Dollar General, Oxford Industries, Genesco and Ciena. Confirm the date and time of any company’s earnings announcement before trading any earnings announcement strategy. The most accurate source of this information is the company’s investor relations website.


Advice to stimulate your imagination:

“A man without ethics is a wild beast loosed up this world.” – Albert Camus

“The hurricane complicates things in that what would have been purely a business decision becomes a decision of the heart.” – Henry Cisneros

“A point of view can be a dangerous luxury when substituted for insight and understanding.” - Marshall McLuhan

“Don’t give me timing, give me time.” – Jesse Livermore

“Freedom is what you do with what's been done to you.” – Jean-Paul Sartre


Monday, August 28:

Economic: International Trade in Goods – 8:30, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey 10:30.

International Economic: Japan Unemployment Rate – 7:30 PM.

Earnings:
SYMBOL B/A 8/25 CLOSE AVGVOL AVG MOVE SMA 10 50% FIB
PRXL AMC $87.70 1,079,620 7.32% $87.69 $87.52


Tuesday, August 29:

Economic: Redbook – 8:55, S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index – 9:00, Consumer Confidence – 10:00, State Street Investor Confidence Index – 10:00.

International: France GDP – 2:45 AM.

Earnings:
SYMBOL B/A 8/25 CLOSE AVGVOL AVG MOVE SMA 10 50% FIB
BBY BMO $61.87 3,803,170 14.81% $60.80   $58.15
HAIN BMO $40.40 2,422,470 4.36% $42.08 $42.40


Wednesday, August 30:
Economic: MBA Mortgage Applications – 7:00, ADP Employment Report – 8:15, GDP = 8:30, Corporate Profits – 8:30, EIA Petroleum Status Report – 10:30.

International Economic: Eurozone Economic Sentiment – 5:00 AM, Germany CPI – 8:00 AM, Japan Industrial Production – 7:50 PM.

Other: Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell will deliver a speech entitled "The Role of Boards at Large Financial Firms," as the breakfast presentation during the Large-Bank Directors Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, with audience and media Q&A, in Chicago – 9:15 AM.

Earnings:
SYMBOL B/A 8/25 CLOSE AVGVOL AVG MOVE SMA 10 50% FIB
ADI BMO $78.97 3,333,630 2.84% $78.94 $78.86
CTRP AMC $52.48 3,795,810 4.54% $51.71 $54.83
FIVE AMC $50.34 1,080,210 5.57% $48.80 $48.63
KEYS AMC $39.82 1,108,750 1.90% $40.56 $41.28
WDAY AMC $103.57 1,414,370 7.63% $103.27 $101.79


Thursday. August 31:

Economic: Chain Store Sales, Challenger Job-Cut Report - 7:30, Weekly Jobless Claims – 8:30, Personal Income and Outlays – 8:30, Chicago PMI – 9:45, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index – 9:45, Pending Home Sales Index - 10:00, EIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30, Money Supply – 4:30.

International: Germany Retail Sales – 2:00 AM, France PPI & CPI – 2:45 AM, Germany Unemployment Rate – 3:55 AM, Eurozone Unemployment Rate – 5:00 AM, China PMI Manufacturing Index – 9:45 PM.

Earnings:
SYMBOL B/A 8/25 CLOSE AVGVOL AVG MOVE SMA 10 50% FIB
CPB BMO $51.40 1,594,050 4.59% $53.51 $52.88
DG BMO $77.67 3,096,050 7.41% $75.37 $75.36
MBLY BMO $63.25 2,642,620 2.79% $63.23 $62.99
TD BMO $51.94 1,261,150 0.64% $50.98 $51.16
AMBA AMC $52.98 1,018,910 8.15% $51.52 $51.58
LULU AMC $60.21 2,548,280 15.14% $59.61 $60.73
PANW AMC $128.63 1,551,780 15.43% $131.05 $133.78
RH AMC $45.43 2,441,390 15.46% $49.38 $62.44


Friday, September 1:

Economic: Motor Vehicle Sales, Employment Situation – 8:30, PMI Manufacturing Index – 9:45, ISM Manufacturing Index – 110:00, Construction Spending – 10:00, Consumer Sentiment – 10:00, Baker Hughes Rig Count – 1:00.

International: Germany PMI Manufacturing Index – 3:55 AM, Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Index – 4:00 AM.

Earnings: None meeting scan criteria.

Monday, September 4:

U.S. Holiday: Labor Day – Markets Closed.

International: Eurozone PPI – 5:00 AM.

Tuesday, September 5:

Economic: Factory Orders – 10:00, Gallup US ECI – 2:00.

International: Germany PMI Composite – 3:55AM, Eurozone PMI Composite – 4:00AM, Eurozone GDP – 5:00AM, Eurozone Retail Sales – 5:00AM.

Other: Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to speak at a moderated Q&A at the 1st Tuesday Speaker Series at Carlson School of Management in Minneapolis, with audience Q&A – 2:00 PM, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan to participate in a moderated Q&A session in Dallas, with audience and media Q&A – 7:00 PM.

Earnings: None meeting scan criteria.