The Prepared Mind 2.14.2010

The Prepared Mind 2.14.2010

"What, me worry?"

The U.S. Markets are at 2 1/2 year highs.  Last week the S&P 500 gained 1.39%, with the Dow Jones gaining 2.27%.  The Russell 2000 was up 2.27% for the week while the NDX (Nasdaq 100 Index) was up 1.17%.   Analysts pointed to growth in the American economy, positive earnings and sales, a dampening of inflation fears, and the easing of Mideast tensions as a reason for the market gains.  The analysts' minds have been taken over by the spirit of Alfred E. Newman.  This appears to be the “What, me worry?” market. 

As a range trader, I worry about the upside and the downside.  This concern is a positive trait when trading.

In a matter of weeks, the tenor of the market has turned from concern to complacency.  Do not become complacent.  The Prepared Mind is ready for a continued upward trend or a market move down.  Do not assume anything.  Be prepared for any move – up or down.  I have to fight against this complacency.  It would easy to turn off the alarm, sleep another hour, and go through the motions of preparing for the trading day.  Do not fall prey to the siren call of complacency.

Earnings reports continue in full force this week.  If you are trading equities, make sure you know when earnings are going to be announced.  It is a good idea to call investor services for specific equities in order to confirm the date and time of release.  It will be a quiet week for economic reports.  Trade well.  Do not allow yourself to be unprepared for any market moves or market moving news.  

Here are some of the highlights for the coming week.

Monday February 14:
Economic:  N/A
Earnings: BTO(Before the Opening) – Valspar (VAL);  ATM(After the Market) -  Agilent Technologies (A), FMC (FTI), Marriott (MAR)
Other:  President Obama sends 2012 budget to Congress

Tuesday February 15:
Economic:  ICSC – January Goldman Sachs Store Sales at 7:45, January Retail Sales and January Import/Export Prices – 8:30, Redbook – 8:55, December Business Inventories – 10:00.
Earnings: BTO –  Grubb &Ellis (GBE), Qwest Communications (Q);  Analog Devices(ACI), Dell((DELL)
Wednesday February 16:
Economic:  January Housing Starts and January Produce Price index – 8;30, January Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production – 9:15, EIA Petroleum Status Report – 11:00.
Earnings:  BTO – Cablevision(CVC), Deere & Co. (DE), Genzyme (GENZ);  ATM – Network Aplliance(NET),  NVIDIA (NVDA), Synopsis (SNPS)
Other:  Ben Bernanke appears with and economic update  before House Budget Committee, Fed issues minutes from late January meeting.
Thursday February 17:
Economic:  January Consumer Price Index Jobless Claims – 8;30, January Leading Indicators and Philadelphia Fed Survey – 10:00, EIA
Earnings:  BTO – Apache(APA), PG&E (PCG), TRW(TRW), Waste Management (WM); ATM – CF Industries(CF), First Solar (FSLR), Nordstrom (JWN)
Other:  Tim Geithner testifies before Senate Finance Committee, Ben Bernanke testifies before the Senate Banking Committee – 10:00.
Friday  February 18:
Economic:  N/A
Earnings:  BTO – Campbell Soup(CPB), Lifepoint Hospitals(LPNT), Progress Energy (PGN)
Other:  Ben Bernanke speaks in Paris – 8:00