"It's Always Something"

Wisdom can come from the most unlikely places. This week's bit of sage advice comes from Roseanne Roseannadanna, a character created by Gilda Radner for early Saturday Night Live. Roseanne would always remind us ,"It's always something--if it ain't one thing, it's another." The litany of factors having an effect on last week's market was impressive - reactor meltdown in Japan, radiation release and radiation levels in Japan, relative strength of the Yen versus the U.S. dollar, Saudi troops in Bahrain, Libyan troops gaining the upper hand against revolutionaries, multiple deaths from Yemeni protests, Libyan fly zone, and problems with European sovereign debt. Roseanne was right; it's always something.

Last week, we had consistent intraday and interday price and volatility movement. The major indices showed losses for the week. For the week, the S&P 500 was down 25.08 or -1.92%, the Dow Jones Industrials were down 185.88 (-1.54%), the NDX down 78.19 (-3.40%) and the Russell 2000 was down 8.17 (-1.02%.) The VIX, the CBOE Volatility Index on the S&P 500, rose 3.56 or 17%. The trading range for the VIX was 20.92 to 31.28 with a close of 24.44.

The general consensus this weekend among the market mavens is the market dodged a bullet. My trading experience is when I think I have dodged a bullet, I have to be careful about standing up and taking a shot between the eyes. Roseanna was right. "If it ain't one thing, it's another." Be careful of "the other." Even though last week was not as bad as many thought it would be, it does not mean mean all our worries are in the past.

It is your responsibility as trader to be prepared for any number of alternate marketing realities. Be ready for "one thing" and "the other." You should be prepared for either. A lack lack of preparation will lead to a panicked response. Know how your positions will behave over time, price and implied volatility. This preparation allows a measured response to the vagaries of the market.

Remember: Chance favors the Prepared Mind." - Louis Pasteur

This week's domestic economic news:

Monday March 21:

Economic: Existing Home Sales - 10:00

Tuesday March 22:

Economic: ICSC - Goldman Store Sales - 7:45, Redbook - 8:55, Richmond Manufacturing Index - 10:00

Wednesday March 23:

Economic: Initial Jobless Claims - 8:30, New Home Sales - 10:00, Crude Oil Inventories - 10:30

Other: Ben Bernanke will deliver a speech titled "Community Banking in a Period of Recovery and Change" at the Independent Community Bankers of America National Convention and Techworld, in San Diego.

Thursday March 24:

Economic: Durable Goods Orders - 8:30, Jobless Claims - 8:50

Friday March 25:

Economic: GDP -8:30, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - 9:55