Monday, May 8, 2017

Market News for the Prepared Mind: 5.08.2017 – 5.15.2017

"Chance favors the Prepared Mind." - Louis Pasteur

"Democrats never agree on anything, that's why they're Democrats.

If they agreed with each other, they'd be Republicans.".” – Will Rogers

“A man who procrastinates in his choosing will inevitably have his choice made for him by circumstance.” - Hunter S. Thompson

“The Euro ceases to exist the moment that France leaves.” - Marie Le Pen

“France is back.” - Emmanuel Macron

Last week ended with two of the three major indexes hitting new highs. The S&P 500 rose 14.80 to close at 2399.92 – a new all-time high, The NASDAQ Composite gained nearly 1%, closing at an all-time high of, advancing 6100.76. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was the laggard. The DJIA advanced 0.3% to close just above 21,000. The small-cap dominated Russell 2000 continued to underperform when compared to larger cap indices.

Financial talking heads are using the VIX to fan the fires of concern about an impending market sell off. It seems every market pundit has a “fact” about the VIX or S&P 500 volatility which portends the risk of the end of the bull market. As of the close this past Thursday, the S&P 500 had gone 7 days without a move of 0.2% in either direction. According to Bespoke Investment, this was only the fifth time the SPX had ever gone as many days with so little movement. This concern was followed by a 0,4% gain on Friday. The VIX hit a post-Financial Crisis low of 9.90 on Monday, while again dipping below 10 on Friday.

The weakness in the VIX and the lack of movement in the major indices are not predictors of market direction. The greatest challenge for me as a trader is avoiding complacency. Trading requires patience and a sense of urgency. Trading has been described by long periods of boredom interrupted by moments of panic. The lethargy of a quiet market can rob a trader of the sense of urgency required to prepare for the reaction required for moments of panic. Hunter S. Thompson summed it up with““A man who procrastinates in his choosing will inevitably have his choice made for him by circumstance.”

Here is an overview of the US market behavior last week and for 2017:
Index 5-May Change % Weekly 2017 YTD Volatility of Index
Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) 21,006.94 66.43 0.32% 6.30% 10.78% (VXD)
S&P 500 (SPX) 2,399.00 14.80 0.62% 7.18% 10.57% (VIX)
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) 5,646.09 62.56 1.12% 16.09% 12.31% (VXN)
Russell 2000 (RUT) 1,397.00 (3.42) -0.24% 2.94% 15.36% (RVX)
S&P 100 (OEX) 1061.26 6.40 0.61% 7.04% 9.93% (VXO)
Crude Oil (CLM7) 46.48 (2.71) -5.51% -13.75% 33.83%(OVX)
Dow Jones Transportation (TRAN) 4454.60 53.06 1.21% 9.95% NA
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) 10.57 (0.25) -2.31% NA
Data Source: OptionVue8

Low implied volatility is a basic fact of current markets. Low statistical volatility (movement of the underlying) and low implied volatility (reflected in premium levels of options) are forcing options traders to reevaluate the strategies being used. The viability of any options strategy must be evaluated against change in time, movement in the price of the underlying and changes in implied volatility of the options. Low levels in volatility - statistical and implied - force the options trader to find strategies fitting their risk/reward comfort zone.

Here is an overview of last week for the VIX and related products:
Indexes Ticker 5-May 28-Apr Change % Change
CBOE Volatility Index VIX 10.57 10.82 (0.25) -2.31%
VIX May Future (5/17/2017) VXK7 11.775 12.275 (0.50) -4.07%
VIX June Future (6/21/2017) VXM7 12.675 13.125 (0.45) -3.43%
VIX July Future (6/18/2017) VXN7 13.675 14.000 (0.32) -2.32%
CBOE Short-term Volatility Index VXST 11.44 9.42 2.02 21.44%
CBOE 3 Month Volatility Index VXV 12.85 12.93 (0.08) -0.58%
CBOE Mid-term Volatility Index (6 month) VXMT 14.65 14.74 (0.09) -0.61%
VIX of VIX VVIX 80.65 77.09 3.56 4.62%
CBOE SKEW Index SKEW 131.36 146.98 (15.62) -10.63%
Long VIX ETP's
ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ETF UVXY 13.15 14.18 (1.03) -7.26%
iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN VXX 14.45 15.01 (0.56) -3.73%
ProShares VIX Short Term Futures ETF VIXY 12.05 12.51 (0.46) -3.68%
iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN VXZ 24.48 24.74 (0.26) -1.05%
Inverse VIX ETP's
ProShares Short VIX Short Term Future ETF SVXY 150.07 145.05 5.02 3.46%
Daily Inverse VIX Short Term ETN XIV 77.63 75.09 2.54 3.38%
Data Source: OptionVue8


Will inflation return in May? April price readings will be released this week; import and export prices will be released on Wednesday, while the Producer Price Index will be released on Thursday and the Consumer Price Index will be released on Friday. Economists and investors will be looking for stability in prices and a number near the Fed’s 2% target.

Strong profit reports, along with conference calls with positive forecasts, continue to be a driving force behind stocks moving upward. First quarter earnings announcements will continue the next two weeks. Confirm the date and time of any company’s earnings announcement before trading any earnings announcement strategy. The most accurate source of this information is the company’s investor relations website. The earnings highlights this week, for widely held and actively traded stocks, are: Newell Brands, Tyson Foods, Marriott, Trip Advisor, Walt Disney, AON, Priceline, Allergan, NVIDIA, Mylan, Whole Foods, Vulcan Materials, Perrigo, Nordstrom, Kohl’s Macy’s and JC Penney.


Advice to stimulate your imagination:

“Patience, Grasshopper” – Master Po

“If you do not actively attack the risks, they will actively attack you.” - Tom Gib

“The key to risk management is never putting yourself in a position where you
cannot live to fight another day.” - Dick Fuld

"The easy way out usually leads back in." - Peter Senge

“In a closed society where everybody’s guilty, the only crime is getting caught.In a world of thieves, the only final sin is stupidity.”- Hunter S. Thompson


Monday May 8:

Economic: Labor Conditions Index – 10:00, TD Ameritrade IMX – 12:30PM.

International Economic: Germany Manufacturers’ Orders – 2:00AM.

Other: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard to speak at a policy session held the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's 22nd Annual Financial Markets Conference on "Shifting Sands of Low Interest Rates" in Fernandina Beach, Florida, with audience Q&A – 8:35AM, Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester speaks about the economic outlook and monetary policy at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs Public Breakfast Program -- From Main Street to Wall Street: Economic Growth, Monetary Policy, and the Federal Reserve, in Chicago IL, with audience and media Q&A, 8:45AM.

Earnings:
SYMBOL B/A 5/5 Close AVGVOL AVG MOVE SMA 10 50% FIB
JD BMO $35.78 6,711,020 5.97% $35.05 $33.32
HAE BMO $43.20 345,746 10.22% $42.20 $41.28
ITT BMO $42.11 557,373 3.77% $41.65 $40.49
LTC BMO $47.35 199,835 1.15% $48.17 $48.02
MNK BMO $46.63 1,836,020 7.73% $45.76 $45.24
NWL BMO $46.39 3,934,920 4.58% $47.26 $47.23
NWN BMO $59.20 132,224 1.97% $59.87 $59.62
SYY BMO $55.31 3,059,680 4.48% $53.09 $53.01
TSN BMO $63.33 2,819,100 4.99% $64.18 $64.19
XEC BMO $120.30 1,123,410 4.16% $117.73 $119.03
AFAM BMO $49.70 112,660 3.13% $48.98 $48.47
EGRX BMO $89.54 244,229 9.77% $88.83 $86.21
KITE BMO $81.78 1,572,200 7.19% $81.97 $79.48
LNCE BMO $34.22 796,551 4.46% $34.46 $35.95
XLRN BMO $31.66 392,497 7.25% $31.45 $29.75
FN AMC $32.81 859,800 5.89% $35.72 $38.24
CST AMC $48.39 424,532 1.37% $48.34 $48.28
DKL AMC $30.65 54,379 4.09% $31.81 $31.10
EOG AMC $90.88 3,310,120 2.85% $92.67 $94.36
IFF AMC $139.27 611,743 3.99% $138.48 $135.58
MAR AMC $97.05 2,570,810 1.23% $95.36 $93.69
NNI AMC $44.85 75,427 8.99% $45.93 $44.77
ORA AMC $58.11 198,521 4.05% $58.94 $59.05
RBC AMC $83.00 238,881 3.31% $78.55 $76.29
RGR AMC $60.00 319,175 2.05% $58.78 $56.08
SJI AMC $36.88 373,916 2.04% $37.36 $36.78
TSO AMC $80.86 2,272,210 2.36% $79.51 $79.30
VVC AMC $59.76 416,417 0.85% $59.32 $59.16
ADUS AMC $36.15 44,843 9.62% $33.93 $33.41
DOOR AMC $82.90 173,617 7.50% $82.67 $80.60
ENTA AMC $30.84 206,210 4.44% $31.34 $30.70
INGN AMC $83.52 163,822 1.05% $82.69 $80.00
ITGR AMC $35.65 232,451 10.61% $36.74 $37.94
JCOM AMC $90.61 361,084 2.50% $88.89 $85.98
MTSC AMC $46.35 96,938 4.94% $46.40 $49.98
NVRO AMC $90.77 378,822 8.17% $91.26 $91.25
OTEX AMC $34.82 478,568 2.26% $34.56 $34.00
PAHC AMC $30.20 89,824 8.13% $29.45 $28.62
PINC AMC $33.85 477,254 5.81% $33.54 $32.84
PKOH AMC $38.25 37,521 8.13% $39.27 $38.02
PLOW AMC $31.80 110,702 9.32% $32.23 $31.88
PODD AMC $42.10 458,627 9.69% $42.82 $42.37
PTLA AMC $38.24 1,050,180 6.63% $39.57 $38.10
SNHY AMC $40.15 110,025 7.26% $38.42 $37.07
TLLP AMC $52.13 369,475 3.11% $54.61 $53.65
TTEC AMC $31.35 77,302 4.42% $31.18 $30.23


Tuesday May 9:

Economic: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index – 6:00, Redbook – 8:55, JOLTS – 10:00. Wholesale Trade – 10:00.


International Economic: Germany Industrial Production and Merchandise Trade – 2:00AM, China CPI and PPI – 9:30PM.

Other: Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren will be the Keynote Speaker at the Risk Management for Commercial Real Estate Conference being held at the NYU Stern School of Business in New York, New York – 1:00PM, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan to speak at the Dallas Regional Chamber Lower Middle Market Investment Summit in Dallas, with audience and media Q&A – 4:15PM.

Earnings:
SYMBOL
B/A 5/5 Close AVGVOL AVG MOVE SMA 10 50% FIB
ACM
BMO
$33.81
1,145,430
5.31%
$34.16
$34.19
AER
BMO
$44.99
1,464,790
3.12%
$45.61
$44.81
AGN
BMO
$244.94
2,715,980
4.07%
$241.77
$239.93
AON
BMO
$122.27
974,105
1.97%
$119.93
$119.27
BLD
BMO
$51.60
281,179
4.49%
$50.91
$48.84
DUK
BMO
$82.98
2,905,280
0.97%
$82.46
$82.31
GCP
BMO
$34.05
514,294
6.79%
$33.20
$32.75
HRI
BMO
$45.60
241,297
9.29%
$46.45
$47.40
IEP
BMO
$52.76
118,425
4.24%
$51.53
$50.42
JEC
BMO
$54.66
871,683
3.70%
$54.84
$54.29
MDC
BMO
$30.93
498,819
2.89%
$31.11
$30.52
NHC
BMO
$73.22
24,600
0.46%
$73.83
$72.09
NHI
BMO
$72.87
228,008
0.63%
$73.77
$73.14
SEE
BMO
$45.79
2,078,450
5.05%
$44.37
$43.73
SFR
BMO
$33.87
1,361,080
1.01%
$34.45
$34.29
STE
BMO
$75.71
541,252
2.56%
$73.42
$71.69
TDG
BMO
$254.98
1,191,690
6.74%
$248.34
$233.53
TLP
BMO
$42.63
30,981
1.30%
$43.99
$43.60
WPC
BMO
$62.40
325,084
1.29%
$63.06
$62.51
ARMK
BMO
$36.72
1,347,340
5.49%
$36.63
$36.63
BCPC
BMO
$80.91
111,521
1.74%
$80.75
$79.53
CBOE
BMO
$83.76
1,364,390
1.86%
$83.11
$81.47
CORE
BMO
$35.71
316,971
2.09%
$34.96
$32.96
EBIX
BMO
$62.25
160,660
2.94%
$61.44
$61.06
HSIC
BMO
$178.35
443,881
4.86%
$173.21
$172.19
IONS
BMO
$47.72
1,601,540
9.25%
$47.26
$43.38
JELD
BMO
$32.83
540,792
2.91%
$33.34
$32.49
NXST
BMO
$63.25
528,516
2.35%
$67.35
$66.72
ONCE
BMO
$58.65
266,449
7.20%
$57.39
$54.31
POST
BMO
$81.22
717,183
2.57%
$83.62
$85.11
WRLD
BMO
$56.07
97,908
12.26%
$54.02
$52.59
XRAY
BMO
$65.59
1,379,830
2.42%
$63.42
$63.52
ZBRA
BMO
$96.56
309,600
10.97%
$93.82
$91.68
FWONA
BMO
$32.85
302,554
6.19%
$33.15
$32.41
LSXMA
BMO
$37.69
475,052
0.05%
$38.83
$39.17
LVNTA
BMO
$52.76
699,927
1.47%
$53.23
$49.34
EA
AMC
$95.74
2,543,870
4.56%
$93.82
$91.69
WR
AMC
$52.52
907,170
0.91%
$52.08
$52.73
DIS
AMC
$111.99
5,887,110
2.03%
$114.22
$112.58
DOX
AMC
$62.07
597,405
1.71%
$61.35
$61.30
FMI
AMC
$35.65
317,517
5.76%
$34.38
$33.12
FNV
AMC
$66.37
734,335
2.11%
$67.08
$67.46
HLI
AMC
$33.77
368,559
2.77%
$33.60
$33.52
KAR
AMC
$43.22
973,786
5.76%
$43.46
$42.82
LDR
AMC
$50.95
28,551
7.49%
$52.62
$50.58
PEN
AMC
$88.50
240,635
3.54%
$86.71
$84.20
PRI
AMC
$85.30
332,640
4.36%
$84.50
$83.25
REG
AMC
$62.67
1,686,350
1.81%
$64.24
$65.28
SLF
AMC
$35.76
428,671
4.50%
$35.65
$35.85
TCX
AMC
$62.10
78,413
4.87%
$59.48
$55.45
ACAD
AMC
$32.74
1,646,360
5.71%
$33.44
$34.15
ACIA
AMC
$47.52
1,582,060
28.05%
$48.30
$51.81
AKRX
AMC
$33.08
4,074,150
8.99%
$33.17
$28.59
ALRM
AMC
$33.45
270,330
7.55%
$32.55
$31.34
COHR
AMC
$225.16
360,136
9.58%
$213.46
$205.37
FARO
AMC
$36.15
79,006
9.86%
$36.05
$34.72
GDOT
AMC
$34.37
307,922
3.07%
$34.39
$33.58
GHDX
AMC
$32.68
117,132
6.19%
$32.55
$31.98
GWPH
AMC
$113.04
303,759
2.33%
$116.51
$117.75
IOSP
AMC
$65.15
116,559
4.01%
$65.15
$63.50
IPAR
AMC
$37.65
93,013
3.13%
$36.83
$36.53
JAZZ
AMC
$159.06
542,646
3.91%
$157.82
$151.74
LGND
AMC
$112.74
258,916
2.82%
$110.20
$108.29
MCHP
AMC
$75.17
3,591,710
4.26%
$75.77
$74.36
NBIX
AMC
$53.74
1,305,220
2.21%
$53.24
$47.30
NEWR
AMC
$41.40
425,690
1.12%
$40.10
$39.03
NVDA
AMC
$103.86
15,211,900
13.24%
$104.16
$102.75
PRAA
AMC
$32.90
419,608
12.22%
$32.94
$32.73
PRSC
AMC
$44.06
73,332
4.99%
$44.09
$44.04
PRTA
AMC
$51.25
307,070
4.83%
$53.85
$52.62
SAGE
AMC
$70.86
519,757
5.23%
$71.52
$69.11
SCSC
AMC
$40.40
119,765
10.71%
$39.58
$38.93
SUPN
AMC
$32.05
564,464
3.25%
$32.84
$31.80
TBPH
AMC
$39.79
231,495
6.10%
$40.11
$38.17
TRIP
AMC
$46.17
3,225,120
9.44%
$44.63
$43.56
TSRO
AMC
$145.13
1,006,840
3.88%
$142.25
$143.84
YELP
AMC
$35.68
2,570,340
15.03%
$34.98
$33.93
ZAYO
AMC
$33.86
2,434,080
1.94%
$34.66
$33.80
LBRDA
AMC
$86.50
104,748
1.28%
$88.32
$87.28
LBRDK
AMC $87.75 420,698 0.48% $89.66 $88.48




Wednesday May 10:
Economic: MBA Mortgage Applications – 7:00, Import and Export Prices - 8:30, Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations – 10:00, EIA Petroleum Status Report – 10:30.

International Economic: France Merchandise Trade – 2:45AM.

Other: Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren will be the Keynote Speaker at a joint meeting of the Lake Champlain Regional Chamber and Central Vermont Chamber of Commerce in South Burlington, VT – 12:00PM.

Earnings:
SYMBOL B/A 5/5 Close AVGVOL AVG MOVE SMA 10 50% FIB
E BMO $32.28 309,957 1.35% $31.23 $31.86
BR BMO $68.91 455,241 1.69% $69.58 $68.48
TM BMO $109.91 261,717 1.89% $108.53 $107.25
YY BMO $51.41 1,027,930 2.45% $48.53 $46.99
AGM BMO $54.83 46,264 8.45% $57.15 $56.78
BID BMO $47.97 596,905 11.48% $47.45 $46.12
CRL BMO $90.59 379,627 3.67% $89.52 $88.71
HPT BMO $31.86 590,151 0.71% $31.00 $31.84
MYL BMO $37.90 5,747,260 3.34% $37.44 $39.22
NRP BMO $33.60 59,464 5.98% $32.86 $34.94
VMC BMO $127.74 1,549,250 4.49% $123.66 $122.13
WIX BMO $73.30 910,768 11.52% $78.08 $75.53
APFH BMO $40.49 1,203,410 2.58% $39.55 $34.67
ATHM BMO $35.13 822,913 2.23% $34.05 $31.89
CSTE BMO $40.55 216,098 10.80% $39.47 $37.52
DXPE BMO $35.30 113,417 23.38% $36.61 $35.59
INCR BMO $42.40 1,099,810 9.42% $43.87 $43.52
MZOR BMO $35.77 275,786 3.13% $35.47 $32.57
NCLH BMO $55.49 1,372,110 8.21% $53.06 $51.62
SATS BMO $58.74 209,630 2.21% $57.81 $56.18
SODA BMO $55.68 375,106 15.21% $54.95 $51.35
TRCO BMO $40.29 1,416,740 3.51% $37.71 $38.09
NP AMC $77.00 96,267 3.02% $78.05 $76.75
ATH AMC $53.50 1,249,700 4.51% (1*) $53.63 $52.02
BMA AMC $87.66 106,692 4.69% $86.63 $86.72
CPA AMC $121.98 349,556 9.63% $116.56 $115.83
DCP AMC $36.43 339,411 1.75% (1*) $37.78 $37.52
ENV AMC $35.50 323,800 4.04% $34.96 $33.45
SEP AMC $45.09 436,421 1.48% $44.80 $43.87
WFM AMC $36.87 6,028,340 4.67% $36.34 $32.91
BCEI AMC $33.83 40,749 13.61% $0.89 $1.02
CTRP AMC $52.68 4,002,810 4.03% $50.32 $49.91
DERM AMC $31.96 303,729 1.95% $33.15 $33.55
HOLX AMC $45.04 2,268,140 5.42% $44.72 $43.81
HTHT AMC $69.12 159,606 2.75% $69.17 $65.36
ICUI AMC $155.05 122,698 3.40% $152.99 $150.30
INTL AMC $36.99 88,549 4.02% $37.42 $36.65
NTES AMC $264.50 1,170,000 6.60% $268.66 $272.90
PBYI AMC $30.70 1,036,430 7.51% $38.45 $37.27
PEGA AMC $45.90 272,892 6.73% $45.77 $44.59
SYMC AMC $32.30 5,634,210 3.56% $31.54 $31.22
WWAV AMC $56.24 1,938,900 2.02% $56.04 $55.34
ZLTQ AMC $56.48 1,741,610 11.36% $56.47 $55.99


Thursday May 11:

Economic: Weekly Jobless Claims – 8:30, PPI-FD – 8:30, Bloomberg Consumer Confidence – 9:45, EIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30, Money Supply – 4:30.

International Economic: Great Britain Industrial Production and Merchandise Trade – 4:30AM, Bank of England Announcement and Minutes.

Other: New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley speaks on the Benefits and Challenges from Globalization at the Interaction with President Dudley event held by the U.S. India Business Council, the Confederation of Indian Industry and the Bombay Stock Exchange in Mumbai, India, with audience Q&A – 8:30AM.

Earnings:
SYMBOL B/A 5/5 Close AVGVOL AVG MOVE SMA 10 50% FIB
OA BMO $98.63 301,389 2.25% $98.63 $97.36
TU BMO $33.29 421,706 1.74% $33.06 $32.89
BAM BMO $37.74 1,031,680 2.47% $37.07 $36.78
DDS BMO $57.59 849,030 7.22% $55.12 $53.01
ENB BMO $41.43 7,969,900 1.94% $41.57 $41.62
KSS BMO $40.12 4,292,410 9.73% $39.40 $39.27
MGA BMO $42.29 1,372,500 3.11% $41.49 $41.74
PBH BMO $56.34 328,440 2.55% $56.70 $57.44
GGAL BMO $41.63 367,156 1.33% $39.92 $39.53
RGLD BMO $69.91 611,756 3.40% $70.10 $71.39
TEVA BMO $31.14 8,148,630 5.63% $31.34 $31.73
CA AMC $32.69 2,238,170 3.61% $32.65 $32.16
WB AMC $56.67 1,503,390 9.23% $54.79 $53.15
JWN AMC $49.01 3,127,910 7.99% $48.10 $46.77
PAM AMC $58.03 283,668 1.67% $56.80 $56.69
TTD AMC $40.07 575,544 5.73% $37.38 $37.54
AVXS AMC $80.26 395,062 9.18% $79.45 $74.16
CYBR AMC $54.21 454,043 4.59% $52.88 $52.06
MIDD AMC $141.07 347,206 3.94% $138.53 $137.39
PRGO AMC $73.41 2,062,430 7.98% $71.16 $70.90

Friday May 12:

Economic: CPI – 8:30, Retail Sales = 8:30, Business Inventories – 10:00 Consumer Sentiment – 10:00, Baker Hughes Rig Count – 1:00.

International Economic: Germany CPI and GDP Flash – 2:00AM, Eurozone Industrial Production – 5:00AM.

Other: Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans speaks about current economic conditions and monetary policy in panel discussion, with audience and media Q&A, at the 56th ACI Financial Markets Association World Conference in Dublin, Ireland – 9:00AM, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick T. Harker to speak about "Economic Outlook" at the Drexel University Urban Economics Policy Conference in Philadelphia, with audience and media Q&A – 12:30PM.

Earnings: None meeting criteria.


Sunday May 14:

International Economic: China Fixed Asset Investment, Industrial Production, and Retail Sales – 10:00PM.


Monday May 15:

Economic: Empire State Manufacturing Survey – 8:30, Housing Market Index - 10:00.

International Economic: No major announcements.

Earnings: None meeting criteria.

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