"Chance favors the Prepared Mind." - Louis Pasteur
“Everything is contingent, and there is also chaos.” Spalding Gray
“Chaos is a friend of mine.” - Bob Dylan
“Does not everything depend on our interpretation of the silence around us?” – Lawrence Durrell
The blog will focus on numbers and “facts.” This is a very frustrating market. My trading discipline is the result of thirty years of daily immersion in equities and their derivative markets. The major variables have always been price movement, volatility, volume, market trends and news This is year has a new variable has been added. Every decision I make is tempered by the unknown variable – a wild card. This unpredictability arises from the, often contradictory, statements of Donald Trump. This will be, yet, another week when where I have to try and define the impact of the unknown variable. Be wary, be nimble.
| Index | 19-May | Change | % Weekly | 2017 YTD | Volatility of Index |
| Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) | 20,804.84 | (91.77) | -0.44% | 5.27% | 11.09% (VXD) |
| S&P 500 (SPX) | 2,381.72 | (8.28) | -0.35% | 6.41% | 12.04% (VIX) |
| NASDAQ 100 (NDX) | 5,651.56 | (35.25) | -0.62% | 16.20% | 13.86% (VXN) |
| Russell 2000 (RUT) | 1,367.33 | (15.44) | -1.12% | 0.75% | 16.84% (RVX) |
| S&P 100 (OEX) | 1050.79 | (6.02) | -0.57% | 5.99% | 11.07% (VXO) |
| Crude Oil (CLN7) | 50.96 | 3.14 | 6.57% | -5.44% | 33.72%(OVX) |
| Dow Jones Transportation (TRAN) | 4328.42 | (64.86) | -1.48% | 6.84% | NA |
| CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) | 12.04 | 1.64 | 15.77% | NA |
Data Source: OptionVue8
VIX futures show little change at the end of the week despite the S&P 500 have its largest downward swoon of the year. The unknown variable on Pennsylvania Avenue is forcing traders to be very nimble.
Here is an overview of last week for the VIX and related products:
| Indexes | Ticker | 19-May | 12-May | Change | % Change |
| CBOE Volatility Index | VIX | 12.04 | 10.40 | 1.64 | 15.77% |
| VIX June Future (6/21/2017) | VXM7 | 12.725 | 12.425 | 0.30 | 2.41% |
| VIX July Future (7/18/2017) | VXN7 | 13.475 | 13.625 | (0.15) | -1.10% |
| VIX August Future (8/18/2017) | VXQ7 | 14.425 | 14.175 | 0.25 | 1.76% |
| CBOE Short-term Volatility Index | VXST | 10.98 | 9.40 | 1.58 | 16.81% |
| CBOE 3 Month Volatility Index | VXV | 13.49 | 12.97 | 0.52 | 4.01% |
| CBOE Mid-term Volatility Index (6 month) | VXMT | 15.57 | 15.10 | 0.47 | 3.11% |
| VIX of VIX | VVIX | 87.21 | 82.50 | 4.71 | 5.71% |
| CBOE SKEW Index | SKEW | 131.39 | 128.21 | 3.18 | 2.48% |
| Long VIX ETP's | |||||
| ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ETF | UVXY | 12.95 | 12.41 | 0.54 | 4.36% |
| iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN | VXX | 14.64 | 14.04 | 0.60 | 4.27% |
| ProShares VIX Short Term Futures ETF | VIXY | 12.16 | 11.72 | 0.44 | 3.75% |
| iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN | VXZ | 25.08 | 24.91 | 0.17 | 0.68% |
| Inverse VIX ETP's | |||||
| ProShares Short VIX Short Term Future ETF | SVXY | 142.40 | 154.45 | (12.05) | -7.80% |
| Daily Inverse VIX Short Term ETN | XIV | 73.67 | 79.85 | (6.18) | -7.74% |
Data Source: OptionVue8
The last full week of May brings reports on existing home sales, new home sales, and durable goods. In addition, the Fed will release the minutes of its last meeting. However, the focus will be in the chaos and disorganization inside the Beltway.
It has been a strong earnings season. Confirm the date and time of any company’s earnings announcement before trading any earnings announcement strategy. The most accurate source of this information is the company’s investor relations website. Earnings highlights include Nordson, Agilent, Toll Brothers, Autozone, intuit, Eaton Vance, Advance Auto Parts, Tiffany, HP, Guess?, Williams Sonoma, Lowe’s, Dollar Tree, Hormel Foods, Gamestop, Medtronic , Ulta Beauty, Toro, Costco, Best Buy and Big Lots.
Advice to stimulate your imagination:
“I like an element of chaos in music. That feeling is the best thing ever,
as long as you don't have too much of it.” - Jeff Beck
“The aim of education is the knowledge, not of facts,
but of values.” - William S. Burroughs
“All media exist to invest our lives with artificial perceptions
and arbitrary values.” - Marshall McLuhan
Monday May 22:
Economic: Chicago Fed National Activity Index – 8:30.
International Economic: Japan All Industry Index – 1:30AM.
Other: Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari will deliver welcoming remarks at the Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Conference in Minneapolis – 10:00AM, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to discuss "the Link Between Physical and Economic Wellbeing" at the Jefferson College of Health Professions and Jefferson College of Pharmacy Commencement Ceremony in Philadelphia – 10:00AM, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in a media Q&A at the Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Conference in Minneapolis – 6:45PM, Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard will deliver the dinner keynote speech at the Opportunity & Inclusive Growth Institute Conference in Minneapolis – 7:00PM, Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard will speak about "The Roles of Opportunity and Inclusion in Strengthening the U.S. Economy" at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis conference on Opportunity and Inclusive Growth in Minneapolis, with audience Q&A – 7:30PM, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans will speak at the Symposium on OTC Derivatives - 58th Shanghai Clearing House Forum on Policy and Practice-Default Management, a private event closed to the media, but remarks are to be posted at the Chicago Fed.org website, in Shanghai China – 9:10PM.
Earnings:
| SYMBOL | B/A | 19-May | MEAN | SMA 10 | 50% FIB |
| A | AMC | $56.13 | 2.93% | $56.36 | $55.34 |
Tuesday May 23:
Economic: Redbook – 8:55, New Home sales – 10:00, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index – 10:00.
International Economic: Japan All Industry Index – 12:30AM, Germany GDP – 2:00AM, Germany PMI Composite Flash – 3:30AM, Eurozone PMI Composite Flash – 4:00AM.
Other: Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in in a conversation about "Homeownership in Indian Country" at the CICD Roundtable - A Conversation about Building Economic Well-Being for Native Communities through Homeownership, in Minneapolis - 3:15PM, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to give a presentation, with audience and Q&A in New York – 5:00PM.
Earnings:
| SYMBOL | B/A | 19-May | MEAN | SMA 10 | 50% FIB |
| MOMO | BMO | $43.58 | 10.44% | $39.87 | $40.06 |
| TOL | BMO | $37.84 | 7.37% | $37.16 | $36.48 |
| INTU | AMC | $125.38 | 2.81% | $126.52 | $121.63 |
| TTWO | AMC | $67.58 | 3.24% | $67.56 | $63.95 |
Wednesday May 24:
Economic: MBA Mortgage Applications – 7:00, FHFA House Price Index – 9:00, PMI Composite Flash - 9:45, Existing Home Sales – 10:00, EIA Petroleum Status Report – 10:30, FOMC Minutes – 2:00.
Other: Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to speak at the Town Hall Forum in Ashland, Wisconsin, with audience Q&A – 6:00PM, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to give a presentation, with audience and Q&A in New York – 5:00PM.
Earnings:
| SYMBOL | B/A | 19-May | MEAN | SMA 10 | 50% FIB |
| AAP | BMO | $151.47 | 2.31% | $145.94 | $144.51 |
| DY | BMO | $106.58 | 15.55% | $107.62 | $101.44 |
| EV | BMO | $44.88 | 2.29% | $44.48 | $43.90 |
| LOW | BMO | $84.59 | 4.47% | $85.18 | $83.65 |
| TIF | BMO | $92.92 | 2.92% | $92.16 | $92.00 |
| CPRT | AMC | $29.31 | 4.26% | $30.00 | $30.25 |
| CSRA | AMC | $28.75 | 6.32% | $29.27 | $28.72 |
| NTAP | AMC | $39.53 | 5.21% | $40.42 | $40.56 |
| PVH | AMC | $100.41 | 3.13% | $100.83 | $100.92 |
| TMUS | AMC | $66.37 | 2.97% | $65.67 | $66.19 |
Thursday May 25:
Economic: International Trade in Goods – 8:30, Weekly Jobless Claims – 8:30, Bloomberg Consumer Confidence – 9:45, EIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30, Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index – 11:00, Money Supply – 4:30.
International Economic: Great Britain GDP – 4:30AM.
Other: Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard to participate in a panel discussion on global economic issues at the Center for Global Development's Voices of Experience: A conversation with former Treasury Under Secretaries for International Affairs in Washington, with audience Q&A – 10:00AM, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan to participate in a moderated Q&A session at the C.D. Howe Institute Annual Directors' Dinner, with audience Q&A – 6:00PM, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard to present on the topic of "U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy" at Keio University in Tokyo, with audience and media Q&A – 10:00PM.
| SYMBOL | B/A | 19-May | MEAN | SMA 10 | 50% FIB |
| BBY | BMO | $51.33 | 10.55% | $51.45 | $50.35 |
| BURL | BMO | $94.74 | 7.05% | $98.90 | $97.28 |
| CM | BMO | $78.86 | 2.38% | $78.79 | $81.74 |
| DLTR | BMO | $79.68 | 9.03% | $80.00 | $79.83 |
| HRL | BMO | $34.83 | 4.00% | $34.41 | $34.65 |
| MDT | BMO | $83.23 | 1.80% | $83.31 | $82.22 |
| PDCO | BMO | $42.79 | 3.20% | $43.65 | $44.03 |
| RY | BMO | $68.81 | 1.79% | $68.07 | $69.69 |
| SIG | BMO | $58.65 | 9.60% | $61.62 | $62.92 |
| TD | BMO | $46.64 | 0.37% | $46.40 | $47.46 |
| COST | AMC | $171.64 | 3.48% | $172.15 | $175.94 |
| DECK | AMC | $59.01 | 7.55% | $59.72 | $58.95 |
| SPLK | AMC | $65.93 | 2.89% | $67.09 | $64.23 |
| ULTA | AMC | $294.08 | 5.36% | $296.81 | $288.70 |
| VEEV | AMC | $60.31 | 8.42% | $56.65 | $54.94 |
Friday May 26:
Economic: Durable Goods Orders – 8:30Am, GDP – 8:30, Corporate Profits – 8:30, Consumer Sentiment = 10:00Baker Hughes Rig Count – 1:00.
International Economic: No major Announcements.
Other: San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to deliver the keynote address at the Symposium on Asian Banking and Finance: Risk and Resilience in Global Finance in Singapore, with media and audience Q&A – 8:15PM,
Earnings:
| SYMBOL | B/A | 19-May | MEAN | SMA 10 | 50% FIB |
| BIG | BMO | $47.50 | 4.12% | $48.36 | $48.52 |
Monday May 29:
US Holiday – Memorial Day – Markets Closed
International Economic: Japan Household Spending and Unemployment Rate – 7:30PM.
Tuesday May 30:
Economic: Personal Income and Outlays – 8:30, Consumer Confidence – 9:00, State Street Investor Confidence Index – 10:00, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey – 10:30.
International Economic: France GDP – 2:45AM, Eurozone Economic Sentiment – 5:00AM, Germany CPI - 8:00AM, Japan Industrial Production – 7:50PM, China CFLP Manufacturing PMI = 9:00PM.
Earnings:
| SYMBOL | B/A | 19-May | MEAN | SMA 10 | 50% FIB |
| BNS | BMO | $55.79 | 3.14% | $55.40 | $56.06 |
| TTM | BMO | $34.45 | 7.33% | $33.51 | $34.20 |
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